Futures-Diagnosis

Diagnosing the future of the Internet and innovation and their social impact

A MISSION WITHOUT A VISION

If you were looking for an example of the loss of vision and a sense of mission in the West, then look no further than NASA’s new spectacular Ares I-X rocket, the world’s tallest at 327 feet high scheduled to blast off today, weather permitting.

This is the rocket that NASA has said will replace the aging ‘commuter bus’ known as the space shuttle. But, as The Washington Post article ‘Where will NASA’s next giant step take us?‘ put it, the debut of Ares I may have been ‘the biggest debut since King Kong’, but it ‘may turn out to be a rocket to nowhere’. Why? Because a blue-ribbon committee has said the Ares I is part of a NASA program that doesn’t make sense given current and future budgets. As a result, the Obama administration is close to killing the Ares I programme.

For the Time’s they are a changing

Just contrast this the Kennedy era where putting a man on the moon was undertaken because it was difficult and when it was recognised that the pursuit of conquering space, while risky, was worthwhile for the new knowledge discovered and problems solved along the way. Yes, this was in the context of the Cold War and the military’s pragmatism certainly started the West’s journey towards technological pragmatism and instrumentalism.

But that sense of mission, leadership and vision, in the face of enormous uncertainty and skepticism, stands in stark contrast to today’s mission without any vision or purpose. Then and now space exploration cost billions. But then there was a belief in science, innovation and a spirit of adventure. Today there is only concern about costs with little vision of what unknown benefits would emerge in the course of a new age of exploration.

It seems that it is not just the space shuttle that will be put out to pasture by the end of 2010, but America’s ambition and belief in progress. If Ares I launches today it is most likely to be an epitaph to a bygone era, rather than gleaming start of a new one.

Filed under: Innovation,

RETHINKING PRIVACY AND TRUST

If we are to understand what significance society now attaches to privacy and thus what this means for the future, we need to examine this question through the prism of trust rather than technological solutions or regulatory impulses.

One of the most confusing things about the question of privacy, and what makes it so elusive today, is that it is far from evident how people regard their right to privacy nor how these attitudes translate into day-to-day behaviours. The concept of privacy, once merely thought of as the right to be left alone, has been transformed as we have become more information oriented and digital technologies ensure that almost everyone now exists with a digital fingerprint. More complicating is the fact, that in recent decades, the boundary between private and public has become blurred. A new age of disclosure has emerged where reality TV and social networking sites now represents the acceptable face of public scrutiny.

Can one seriously argue that privacy is regarded as something important today?

At one level it is clear that contradictory attitudes and practices co-exist (often in the same individuals). Some people, for example, while concerned about data collection and the potential abuse of power by the state, are quite happy to reveal their deeply personal and innermost thoughts on social networking sites. People who are concerned about privacy seem willing to bargain the release of very personal information in exchange for relatively small rewards (often financial). Others, who are keen to protect their sexual or medical histories, will gladly disclose vital details of their financial circumstances on commercial websites. Others who reveal themselves on social networking sites are paranoid about online transactions, fraud and identity-theft. When it comes to security, even those who regard privacy as intrinsic to personal liberty are willing to accept encroachments on their liberties and rights by the state with little protest or outcry – in the name of anti-terrorism or anti-crime (just think of the deployment of CCTV cameras in the UK). And even more worrying and confusing, many appear to have no problem in any of these spheres.

A CONVENIENT TRADE-OFF?

What appears to be happening is that privacy is increasingly being regarded as an area of trade-offs, rather than a political principle that needs to be defended or upheld in all circumstances, particularly against the state:

  • Privacy will be traded for free content online;
  • Personal information will be shared with some institutions for some other benefit;
  • State surveillance and data capture will be accepted as a trade off for personal security (although, as the authors of Database State argue, giving up privacy does not necessarily enhance security).

There are numerous studies that show the differential attitude people have towards sharing information in different circumstances. The recently published Economic and Social Research Council’s study Assessing Privacy Impact (download the pamphlet from this press release) reveals this clearly. According to Dr Ian Brown of the Oxford Internet Institute, in their latest annual survey of Internet use, they found that while more people were now happy to provide email addresses, and names to e-commerce websites, public concern over data collection by state institutions (beyond concerns about competence) remains very high: ‘the public is unhappy about extensive sharing, even for purposes such as counter-terrorism and medical research’.

So how does one begin to understand what is really happening here, let alone what this might mean for the future? It appears that people’s willingness to share information about themselves depends to a large degree on who they are sharing that information with. It is precisely because people have different levels of trust (or confidence) towards different institutions that these differentials in attitude and behaviour can co-exist.

This is what makes anticipating privacy behaviour so elusive: how much information people will disclose or how they will regard a breach of data protection depends not only on their prior attitude towards privacy, but also on how they trust the beneficiary of their self-disclosure or data breaches. Risk trade-off behaviour is mediated through a trust relationship between the discloser and the recipient of information.

The distinction between sharing information with people in a social network versus institutions sheds considerable light on the behaviours we have noted above.

TRUST AND CONFIDENCE

In his study The Problem of Trust by Professor Adam B Seligman, published in 1997,  a distinction is insisted upon between trust and confidence which is very helpful for the purpose of rethinking privacy today.

Seligman argues that there is a fundamental difference between trust in people (interpersonal relationships) and confidence in institutions. (The same would apply to technological systems, which is not Seligman’s focus). This goes to the heart of what trust actually is – a relationship which is not based upon reciprocal calculation and is open-ended. Seligman argues convincingly that if a trusting act was based upon calculation of expected outcomes or on the rational expectation of a quantified outcome, this would not be an act of trust at all but an act based on confidence. This would be based upon the idea of confidence in the existence of a system that delivered what it promised. The suspension of reciprocal calculation is precisely what is absent in trusting relationships.

Trust not only entails negotiating risk, it implies risk (by definition, if it is a means of negotiating that which is unknown). But the risk is specific. It is based upon the implicit recognition of others’ capacity to act freely and in unexpected ways. Unconditionality and engagement sit at the heart of trust relations. As Seligman notes, if all actions were constrained or regulated there would be no risk, only confidence or a lack thereof. In relations of confidence roles are prescribed while passivity defines behaviour; we give data to the state, they act upon it, more often than not, outside of our control. Data protection legislation protects data and prescribes what can or can’t be done with that data. We are passive onlookers who give up that data willingly or inadvertently.

So, in our interpersonal relationships – in the realm of trust – we act as free individuals and recognise others’ free agency as well. But when we act in predefined ways (that is we are constrained) trust is not called for, nor established. Confidence that everyone will act in accordance with the law or existing moral standards suffices. It is only when aspects of behaviour transcend this that trust emerges systematically as an aspect of social organisation.

Thus, the origins of trust are rooted in our recognition of the freedom of others to act freely. It is inked to free will; the ability to act autonomously, recognise that in others, and the ability to act outside of predefined or ascribed roles.

Trust is therefore a very rare commodity and because it is based on free will, trust cannot be demanded, only offered and accepted. Trust and mistrust thus develop in relationship to free will and the ability to exercise that will, as different responses to aspects of behaviour that can no longer be adequately contained within existing norms and social roles.

HIGH TRUST – LOW PRIVACY

This provides some important insights into the complexities surrounding the contradictory privacy behaviours mentioned above. Sharing of personal information on Facebook is thus a fundamentally different act from allowing one’s personal data to be used by the National Health Service or any other government institution.

In the first instance, social networking sites are voluntary. Joining and participating is based upon free will and the ability to act autonomously. By adding friends to our network, we implicitly recognise this in our friends and recognise their ability to act outside of predefined roles. Reciprocity is an outcome rather than a condition for participation. Gaining acknowledgement from your peers does not assume what form that should take. Outcomes cannot be predetermined. It is a trust relationship because it is open-ended where individuals are free to control their identities, how they present themselves and share what’s on their minds and recognise in their friends the same capacities. For younger people, in particular, this is perhaps their only truly private space. Not even their homes or bedrooms are as private as this.

This is thus a high trust space where privacy has a negligible impact on behaviour.

LOW TRUST – HIGH PRIVACY

The opposite pertains to environments where requests for information are made from institutions and organisations that we interact with. From what has been said above it should be clear that our relationships with state institutions are based upon confidence rather than trust: roles are ascribed while outcomes are intended and expected. Transgressions are resolved through the legal system. There is neither unconditionality nor active engagement but a passive prescribed role relationship, which is not subject to change or control. Passivity or the expectation of trust being delivered is thus anathema to the establishment of real trust relations.

In these circumstances it is clear that privacy concerns will come to the fore and influence behaviour far more than in the case of social networks. The blurring of the boundaries of public and private today and the general disengagement of atomised citizens with the political process means that the lack of confidence in the institutional frameworks of society is extremely high.

In these circumstances mistrust or the lack of confidence ensures that privacy concerns are more heightened.

THE FUTURE?

The tentative conclusion and the fundamental insight this approach offers is that privacy attitudes and behaviours will change according to the level of trust or mistrust people have with regard to the people or institutions they are interacting with. How much they trust the potential beneficiary of their self-disclosure is now the overriding motivator of behaviour.

This suggests that any discussion that does not take this as a starting point will inevitably get it wrong. Regulation and legislation (data protection legislation, for example) or technologically based solutions (like identity management solutions, privacy policies etc) can exacerbate rather than allay fears because they fail to take into account the trust relations underpinning them. This is a problem of perception and social attitudes, not something that is susceptible to legal or technical fixes. For regulation or technological solutions to be effective they have to be based upon the prior question of how much trust the given institution or system enjoys with the public.

Understanding how people develop their perceptions of trust and mistrust must be the starting point for any rethinking of the question of privacy. This is the challenge.

Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Privacy and Innovation, Trust

LEVERAGING THE POWER OF NETWORKS FOR SMALL ENTERPRISES

In last week’s Sunday Times Business Supplement, there was an interesting article titled ‘Small firms unite in co-operatives to save costs’ which touches upon a theme I began to develop in a previous blog post Reinventing the co-op for the Twenty-First Century.

The article mentions that there are now almost 1,000 co-operative consortia in the UK in all sectors – from manufacturing to website design and from farmers to consultants. The idea is simple: join forces to gain more clout, and use this to help the bottom line. One example suffices to show the potential: in North York Moors National Park, seven hill farmers have joined together to form a co-op, naturally called, Seven Hill Farmers (and without the help of branding consultants!). The co-op has been used to negotiate better terms for selling their traditionally reared lamb to Asda. Last month they began selling 300 lambs a week to Asda.

This is a simple but effective example of how collective power can be leveraged to benefit from scale. But it is only embryonic.

There is a more ambitious point to make about this phenomenon: so there are 1,000 co-operative consortia in the UK across all sectors, perhaps leveraging their collective strength within their niche markets to the same or lesser degree as the Seven Hill Farmers. This might result in reducing costs on office space, like Open Space in Manchester, for example but this is only leveraging part of their potential. Without knowing what areas the 1,000 co-operative consortia cover in the UK, collectively they must all have similar requirements: they will spend money on office supplies and space, communications, transport and delivery costs etc etc.

The real potential for the disparate 1,000 co-ops is to become one virtual co-operative which will gain the leverage of a large corporation and thus not only enable more negotiating power, but change the rules of the game altogether.

THE VIRTUAL ‘UBER-CO-OPERATIVE’ – AN ENTERPRISE SERVICE PLATFORM

What is really needed is the development and management of a corporate network environment to provide the software and IT solutions and services environment required by an Enterprise. This would be achieved by constructing an extensible platform of service components and developing services that leverage the power of the collective. To be even more effective, the platform would be opened up for third parties to use as a component base for building services for the virtual co-op. This platform would function like an  Enterprise Services Platform (ESP) where third parties could provide specific applications to ensure a greater range of services and applications to be made available to the virtual co-op and which leverage the collective power of the co-op.

The platform stack would have to be extensible, while the ability to add new components and associated API sets over time with the minimum of effort, should be built into its architecture. The goal would be to build a platform that leverage the power of the collective. The virtual co-op ESP would thus act as an IT and services  platform for its members as well as third party service providers. Leveraging the power of the collective will provide cost-effective services and revenue opportunities for all concerned (saving money or generating paid for services).

Two examples suffice to illustrate how the ESP could function to realise the network effect of the virtual co-op.

LOGISTICS

This is an area of immense challenge for both transport suppliers and SMEs. Transport suppliers want to ensure that their trucks are as full as possible in order to maximise profits. Unfortunately waiting for delivery contracts often means that the vehicles are far from optimised for certain distance runs.

Many SMEs have sporadic requirements for courier deliveries, maybe because they rarely need them, or maybe because the niche nature of products they supply means there is little or no pattern in the delivery addresses.

So how would the ESP work in this instance?

A third party could, for example, work with a number of Logistics providers to build a service which allows them to aggregate the shipping requirements of co-op members. They can then contract the courier with the most available space for any given geographic transport run. The logistics firms are able to offer a better rate to the third party as they contract in bulk; the third party passes on some of this saving to the co-op members while taking a cut as an arrangement fee. The third party builds a system which interfaces with the parcel tracking systems of the various carriers in order to present a single interface for co-op members to track their current shipments, even though they may actually be travelling to different geographic locations with different couriers.

PURCHASE GROUPS

Group purchasing is a great way for small buyers to gain the bulk buying discounts normally open only to larger buyers. Maintaining buying groups can however be time consuming.

How does the ESP do this?

A third party develops an ESP-based system which allows co-op members to maintain a list of items they intend to purchase and a maximum price they are prepared to pay. This purchase list is aggregated and published, with the buyers remaining anonymous to encourage other members to register their interest in any of the items. The third party system utilises an agent platform to negotiate with potential suppliers reporting back a price. When a price mutually acceptable to the co-op members is achieved, the items are ordered and the co-op members billed automatically. Linked to the logistics platform, the optimal delivery date and carriage can be secured as well.

Taking this one step further it is conceivable that such a platform could be opened to non-co-op members thus increasing its network effect even more.

It is clear that the idea of co-operatives joining forces to gain more clout represents only the embryonic power of the network effect. To realise its full potential will need the co-operatives to follow through the logic of what their actions potentially mean. What is needed is more collective pooling – the coming together of these co-operatives to create a vision that can realise their common interests. Today, this potential could be combined with software and network technologies that can leverage the network effect. This is a great opportunity to change the rules of the game.

If anyone is interested in organising an event to try to bring the co-operative consortia together to realise this vision,  please get in touch.

Filed under: Economics of Innovation, ,

EMERGING COMMUNICATIONS CONFERENCE & AWARDS FALL ’09 – AMSTERDAM

ecomm_logoThe Emerging Communications Conference & Awards (eComm Fall, 28-30 October) is a ‘must attend’ event for all those concerned with or interested in the future of communication innovations.

eComm has become the world’s leading-edge event, spanning Telecom, mobile and Internet based communications. It’s designed to showcase and accelerate both technology and business model innovation.

There is not a migratory way for telecom operators and media outlets to the future; emergent social practice is increasingly clashing with their very structure and desires. This means unprecedented opportunity for those ahead-of-the-curve.

The emerging transformations require big thoughts and big bets.

eComm the venue for those thoughts and bets to be shared and heard.

For more information please visit http://eComm.ec or register here to receive a 10% discount.

(I will be attending and will be speaking on day one on inverting the power of networks to secure the 21st Century communications services we need).

Filed under: Innovation,

IN DEFENCE OF RESEARCH FOR RESEARCH’S SAKE

Anyone concerned about innovation and the decline of Research as opposed to the rise in Development in R&D spending should read this provocative article on the Times Higher Education site defending ‘useless’ knowledge by Claire Fox of the Institute of Ideas.

In defending scholarship for its own sake, she eloquently argues against the fashion for “evidence-based” research which is increasingly forcing academia to deliver “advocacy research”, basically to endorse government policies. Her demand for the pursuit of knowledge for knowledge’s sake ends with the following call to arms:

It’s time to mount a battle of ideas – in academia and in the public sphere – to defend scholarship per se, and turn it into a beacon of human achievement and aspiration – freed from its subordination to pragmatic, immediate objectives. Let battle commence.

This same instrumentalism – the subordination to pragmatic, immediate objectives – is precisely the same dynamic we see in the sphere of innovation and business today: longer-term Research is being increasingly subordinated to a short-term pragmatic culture of exploiting existing knowledge to develop products or services that can be commercialised immediately. Anyone who shares concern about the implications of contemporary culture’s short-term pragmatism should read this article, and join the debate at a Battle of Ideas Satellite event Don and dusted: is the age of the scholar over? on Wednesday 7 October at the British Museum, London.

You should also attend this year’s Battle of Ideas Festival on the weekend of October 31/1 November 2009 where many sessions will touch upon this and related themes and many more. (I will also be participating in a keynote debate Rethinking Privacy in an age of Disclosure and Sharing with fellow panelists, Cory Doctorow, Peter Barron of Google, and journalist Anna Minton. More on this on this blog next week).

Filed under: R&D and Innovation, ,

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