Futures-Diagnosis

Diagnosing the future of the Internet and innovation and their social impact

ERIC SCHMIDT’S ‘INNOVATION DEFICIT’ RECIPE DEFICIENT

Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google published an article on Tuesday in the Washington Post  titled ‘Erasing our innovation deficit’ in which he argues for a fundamental rethink of America’s innovation model.

Schmidt’s concerns appear to be motivated by his observation that much of the cutting-edge research and development in key areas such as renewable energy now takes place outside the United States. His fear is that there is now a ‘real chance that the “green Silicon Valley” will take root in Germany or China’. This he argues America cannot afford to let happen.

There is truth in this observation as I have noted in previous posts about the nature of the R&D taking place in Asia. And there is much to agree with in his call for ‘encouraging risk-taking’ and tolerating ‘failure — provided we learn from it’. One of the key principles in the Big Potatoes Manifesto argues for precisely this approach. But there are some assumptions in his piece that are debatable if not plain wrong. The most glaring contradiction is his appeal for openness and data sharing and bottoms up innovation…provided this happens in American not Asia.

Coffee shops vs big corporate labs

In arguing for an overhaul of America’s innovation model, Schmidt makes the same point as many others about open innovation and the impact of the Internet. He argues as follows:

‘We can no longer rely on the top-down approach of the 20th century, when big investments in the military and NASA spun off to the wider economy. Now that the Internet has put abundant information and powerful tools in everyone’s hands, innovation is often driven from the bottom up. The ideas that power our next generation of growth are just as likely to originate in a coffee shop as in the laboratory of a big corporation’.

It is certainly true that the Internet and the greater availability of data has enormous potential for the kind of collaboration that may result in breakthrough innovations in the future. But what he fails to point account or even credit, is that today’s bottom up philosophy exists because of the very top down investment Schmidt now considers outdated. Indeed, Google would not exist if it were not for this past investment and approach. That is not to say that history must necessarily repeat itself. But to dismiss this or to counterpose this to coffee shop collaboration is to throw the baby out with the bath water.

What makes bottom up innovation more a possibility today is the legacy of yesterday’s top down R&D models which are now dismissed as old-fashioned. This is historic myopia because we are now living off that legacy with no clear replacements available.

Yesterday’s top down approach was critical for providing the context within which breakthrough innovations took place – from corporate labs to garage inventors. President Kennedy’s pledge to put a man on the moon, ‘because it is difficult’, created the context within which big ideas, risk taking, solving new problems, discovering new fields of science and knowledge became a legitimate and honourable pursuit – a pursuit, it should be noted, which required expertise, systematic application, long-term resources, experimentation and yes, a culture of failure. This inspired generations of young people to study mathematics, physics, chemistry and computer science.

The problem Schmidt evades is that this is very unlikely to happen in corporate labs today, because they are subject to a more risk-averse and short-term financial instrumentalism that constrains what is possible.

Its the context, Eric

An innovation model requires an innovation context. This is precisely what is missing from today’s debate about innovation. The problem with American innovation is that it now takes place within a cultural context which is driven by short-term market instrumentalism, is risk averse and above all, defined by limits that are no longer challenged. The kitchen table innovator and the researcher in the corporate labs of tomorrow (those that still remain, that is) will be condemned to dabble within this culture of limits. The result in both cases will be a race to the bottom rather than a struggle to the top.

How to take advantage of the collaborative resource we have at our finger tips while raising expectations, ambitions and challenging our risk averse culture of limits seems to be the real challenge which Schmidt only partially focuses on. This will not happen spontaneously. It requires leadership and heretically Big Ideas. Without that a government ‘wikipedia of idea’, as Schmidt demands, will only reinforce the narrow scope of contemporary efforts, expectation and ambition…and keep out the Chinese? Not very open Mr Schmidt.

Filed under: Innovation, , ,

DEATH BLOWS TO LIFE SCIENCES R&D SPEND?

The concerns we have at Big Potatoes about the threat of cuts in R&D spending seems to be well founded with the recent announcements by GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer concerning their plans to cut  R&D and other expenses as part of an effort to lower costs.

  • GlaxoSmithKline cited by the Wall Street Journal’s Health Blog, reported that it plans to save an extra £500 million a year by 2012 by cutting from R&D as well as sales and administrative expenses, with 70% of the savings going to the bottom line and 30% being reinvested. 3-4000 jobs are to go.
  • Things are no better for Pfizer: although Pfizer spent $2.8 billion on R&D in the fourth quarter of last year, R&D spending is about to fall pretty sharply. According to estimates from the company, R&D spending will fall to between $8 billion and $8.5 billion by 2012 (Pfizer expects to spend between $9.1 and $9.6 billion on R&D this year, a bit less than some Wall Street analysts had expected, and well below the $11 billion in combined R&D spending from pre-merger Pfizer and Wyeth).
  • Meanwhile at AstraZeneca, an additional 8,000 jobs will go over the next few years — about 12% of the company’s workforce. That’s on top of thousands of cuts previously announced by the company. And like the other companies cited above, these cuts will also impact their R&D department.

This is a very disturbing trend because in all these cases basic research capacity is being axed for areas that are now regarded as better guaranteeing returns on investment. In Life Sciences where successful innovation relies upon a huge amount of experimentation and failure, cutting basic research capacity smacks of an increasing instrumentalism which can only inhibit breakthrough innovation in the future. Short-termism, it seems, is now being institutionalised in an industry which is noted for its longer-term commitment and time-frames. Where next?

Filed under: R&D and Innovation, , , ,

Big Potatoes Principle 1: THINK BIG

As a preview to the launch of Big Potatoes: The London Manifesto for Innovation, here is the first principle concerning reclaiming ambition in innovation.

The full entry of China and India into the world economy doesn’t just mean billions more consumers aspiring to Western lifestyles. It also means that the world can benefit from billions of innovating brains. It’s a moment to broaden horizons, expect much more, and expand every kind of ambition.

First, though, Britain and the West need to recover a sense of what innovation is and just how much it can do.

Defining innovation and its potential

Innovation cannot be reduced to technology: while it embraces improvements both in process and in product or service, these often accompany changes in organisation. [1] However today technological innovation is weak in private services, weaker still in public services, and takes second place to changes in business model – different ways of taking money from customers. In particular, business expenditure on research and development (R&D), taken as a fraction of GDP, has been stagnant in America and Europe for 15 years or more. [2] In that faltering context, where the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development talks up what it calls ‘the central importance of non technological innovation’, [3] it’s essential to uphold the powerful improvements, above all in productivity, that new techniques can bring.

When Adam Smith published The wealth of nations in 1776, he didn’t know that the title to his famous passage, ‘The division of labour in pin manufacturing (and the great increase in the quantity of work that results)’ would be on the back of every £20 note. Nor could he have realised how much bigger, with China and India, is the stock of ingenuity that mankind can now mobilise. [4] Yet today all corners of the Earth can rightly hope to move on toward a global division of labour far in advance of what we can imagine. By itself, that won’t lead to more time for leisure or more equality. But with more than one billion people going hungry for the first time in 40 years, [5] the need for productivity step-changes just in agriculture, irrigation and food distribution has seldom been greater.

In innovation there can be no skipping over the need for professional expertise. Still, with the opening up of Asia, more people can now specialise more deeply in particular lines of work – something that will also allow multidisciplinary initiatives in innovation to be more successful. The Internet and machine translation make international collaboration easier. So, after all today’s ignorance about the whereabouts of toxic assets, the world now has a chance finally to move toward the much vaunted, prematurely announced ‘knowledge economy’.

Scale is beautiful

Of course, Britain will not make digital cameras any time soon. Conversely, China will not forever build coal-fired power stations unequipped with carbon capture and storage. But between the nations of the world there is now an opening to share profound insights, agree on vaulting objectives, and take wealth to a qualitatively higher level: to provide more growth, and a better kind of growth.

The first principle of a new, innovatory global division of labour for the 21st century is that scale is beautiful, not smallness. In mobile telephony and electronics, miniaturisation has its place; but to lower the cost of handsets enough for world’s poor to be able to afford them, still larger, more automated production lines are needed. To make the most of sources of renewable energy, which are very diffuse, demands scale undertakings, not David Cameron’s kind of roof-mounted home windmill. Even without attacking the world’s deteriorated and substandard housing, UN estimates suggest, the world must build no fewer than 4000 houses an hour – if its increasing population is to be housed and its slums replaced. [6] More than a third of a century after Ernst Schumacher’s Small is beautiful (1973), it’s time to wave goodbye to humility, parochialism, and the dogma of ‘act local’.

Innovation must set its sights high, and can never do things by halves.

Innovation is, at its best, Big Potatoes.


[1] In the classic account of the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, ‘long-term improvements in output and cheapness’ came from new technologies and methods of production or transport, but also from new consumer goods, new markets, new sources of supply and new forms of organisation. See Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (1942), Unwin Paperbacks, 1987.

[2] See Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI): 2009-1, 13 July 2009, on http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/9/44/41850733.pdf

[3] OECD, Policy Responses to the Economic Crisis:  Investing in Innovation for Long-Term Growth, June 2009, p16, on http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/59/45/42983414.pdf

[4] On top of the populous East, a mere billion people in the West now have, in their leisure time and their widespread access to the Web, an opportunity to volunteer to collaborate on innovation for between two and six billion hours a day. See Yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom, Yale University Press, 2006, p55.

[5] United Nations, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2009, October 2009, on ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/012/i0876e/i0876e.pdf

[6] Figure derived from United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Financing Urban Shelter – Global Report on Human Settlements 2005, 2005, Tables 1.2 and 1.3, p5, on www.unhabitat.org/pmss/getElectronicVersion.asp?nr=1818&alt=1

Filed under: Innovation, ,

BIG POTATOES: THE LONDON MANIFESTO FOR INNOVATION

Without doubt, the launch of Apple’s iPad was another over-hyped media circus. Yes, it provoked some debate about the nature of innovation today. (For example see this piece in the New York Times in defence of ‘elitist and individual’ innovation versus this piece in the Guardian which attacks Apple’s proprietary approach as ‘stifling open innovation’). Interesting, but this is small potatoes. What is notably absent is a serious public debate about innovation and the future of economic growth. Which is precisely what Big Potatoes: the London Manifesto for Innovation aims to do and which will be publicly launched at the end of this month.

WHY BIG POTATOES?

The Credit Crunch has so far failed to spur any major innovations. Worse, there is no public debate on innovation. Instead, our political leaders focus on symptoms — ‘greedy bankers’ and the parallel financial universe, lack of ‘consumer confidence’. They also prefer dying business models to the great and necessary challenge of creating new industries. What we have is a great evasion – a systematic failure to face up to the innovation crisis that threatens to rob future generations of economic growth.

This is why a group of us decided to come together to create a new 14 point Manifesto for Innovation which we hope to make a key issue in the forthcoming UK general election. Beyond that we hope to make this a global debate, for innovation is an issue that faces humanity. The Manifesto authors are: Nico Macdonald, Alan Patrick, Martyn Perks, Mitchell Sava, James Woudhuysen and myself.

We believe innovation is an indispensable premise for improving the quality of life. It is first, a means to a better life; but it also dignifies human beings, and sets them apart from animals. In innovation, humans find uses for things that seemed useless, and new uses for things they thought they knew the uses of.

During today’s economic downturn, innovation will be more important than ever. The sooner far-sighted strategies are developed and implemented by government, business and other agencies, the more a better world will be within humanity’s reach.

It is not innovation that creates inequality, but the social choices of institutions. We distinguish innovation from fiscal, regulatory, legal and cap-and-trade responses to today’s challenges. Unlike these technocratic measures, innovation has the potential, at least, to increase wealth and opportunity for everyone: it is not a zero-sum game.

The Big Potatoes Manifesto is call to arms: for leadership and risk taking, for accepting failure and unexpected outcomes as the necessary and inevitable path to success, for bold and ambitious experimentation and an end to the instrumentalist short-termism which has institutionalised a culture of limits. This Manifesto is designed to improve the climate for innovation and represents a clarion call for a new generation of leaders that can inspire new gymnastics in the mind and new ingenuity in the lab and factory floor.

14 points to raise the debate

The Manifesto consists of the following 14 points:

  1. Think big!
  2. Go beyond the post-war legacy of innovation
  3. Principles, not models!
  4. In praise of ‘useless’ research
  5. Innovation is hard work
  6. For success, expect lots of failures
  7. Regard chance and surprise as allies
  8. Take risks
  9. Innovation demands leadership
  10. Innovation is every body’s responsibility
  11. Trust the people, not regulation
  12. Think global, act global
  13. The spirit of innovation knows no limits
  14. By, with and for humanity

The Manifesto will be publicly launched at the end of this month. If you are interested in reading the Manifesto and/or getting involved, or attending the public launch, please visit us here and register your interest.

Filed under: Innovation, ,

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