Futures-Diagnosis

Diagnosing the future of the Internet and innovation and their social impact

R&D IN 2010: GOING EAST – ITS OFFICIAL

According to the National Science Foundation’s Science and Engineering Indicators 2010, the US while leading most areas of science and technology, has experienced a gradual erosion of its position. This is primarily because of the rapidly increasing capabilities among East Asian nations, such as China, and the fruition of the European Union’s efforts to boost its relative competitiveness in R&D, innovation and high-tech.

The data begins to tell a ‘worrisome’ story: Science and technology are no longer the province of developed nations

The report, which a top White House official called the ‘State of the Union for science, engineering, mathematics and technology,’ is required to be submitted to the president and Congress by Jan. 15 of every even numbered year, with the most previous report issued in 2008.

‘Not just about where we stand, it’s about where we are headed’

The report notes some important shifts that indicate that the US’s leading position is now facing serious challenges:

  • 2007 was the year China caught up to the U.S. in the number of researchers and doctoral degrees in natural sciences and engineering;
  • While the U.S. continued to be the largest R&D performing nation – representing one-third of total world investment – Asia has narrowed the gap, largely due to the sustained annual increases by China;
  • China is now the third-largest R&D performer in the world behind the U.S. and Japan and is moving ahead of Germany, France and the UK;
  • For several Asian economies, including South Korea, Taiwan, China and Singapore, increases in R&D investment have been accompanied by notable increases in the rate of growth in the number of researchers;
  • While the U.S. continues to lead the world in research output, China has become the second most prolific contributor to the world’s peer-reviewed science and engineering research articles, which is up from 14th place just 10 years earlier;
  • The U.S. economy had the highest concentration of knowledge and technology intensive (KTI) industries, such as biotech, among major economies; While those industries accounted for 38 percent of the U.S. gross national product (GDP) in 2007, China’s KTI industries created 23 percent of GDP – up from 21 percent in 1992;
  • Productivity growth has been higher in China and other Asian nations than in the developed economies;
  • The U.S., the EU and Japan – with similar shares of high-value patents – accounted for nearly 90 percent of the total world’s patents – Asia’s patent share increased from 1 percent in 1997 to 6 percent in 2006, with South Korea accounting for almost all of that growth;
  • The U.S. share of patent applications in 2008 declined to 51 percent, with gains for second- and third-ranked Japan and the EU;
  • The U.S. has a comparatively higher-than-average share of patents in aerospace and the four health areas of pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical equipment and medical electronics, with Asia relatively weaker in those technologies. However, Asia’s patent share has risen over the past decade with pharmaceuticals and biotechnology.

SHIFTS IN INVESTMENT?

The report notes that overall spending on R&D in the U.S. was $398 billion in 2008 – up from $373 billion in 2007, or a growth rate of 6.7 percent. Importantly, the business sector accounting for 73 per cent of R&D performance and funding. The academic sector was the second-largest performer of U.S. R&D, with an estimated $51 billion in 2008, or just under 13 percent of the U.S. total.

But the federal government, the second-largest funder of U.S. R&D, provided an estimated $104 billion, or 26 percent, of the U.S. total in 2008. With the financial crisis this will definitely change.

The report confirms what has been argued in this blog for some time: namely, that science and technology activities are shifting toward Asian economies. What we are seeing is a relative decline in the US. But unlike other areas, R&D declines cannot be simply reversed. It is difficult to see how a decline in R&D capacity can be arrested other than a radical revamp which so far, is noticeable by its absence in the US and Europe.

Filed under: R&D and Innovation, Science and Innovation,

NEXUS, SHMEXUS! YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!!!

I was hoping to start posting in the New Year with something positive in the hope that the innovation landscape of 2010 would improve. But alas, experience has triumphed once again  over hope.

Things started looking up with the opening of the Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest building which opened with a dramatic fireworks ceremony in the Gulf emirate of Dubai yesterday. At last, I thought, a project which re-establishes ambition in architecture and contains some construction innovations which will impact construction in the years ahead.

Then there was the astonishing announcement as reported on the BBC that Nasa’s Kepler Space Telescope had detected its first five exoplanets, or planets beyond our Solar System. Aha, I thought, perhaps mankind’s ambition to explore and experiment beyond the known world will take a turn outwards…

Then there was the hullabaloo around Google’s announcement of its new handset, Nexus One . And as they say, things fell apart. Just a cursory examination of Nexus One coming from what has been one of the most innovative and dynamic companies in the world reveals that we’re still in the innovation doldrums.

An ‘i-Phone’ with half the battery life

Nexus One is simply a poor clone of the i-Phone with some incremental improvements and one notable shortcoming – battery life. The Nexus One comes equipped with a five-megapixel camera and a flash for taking shots in dark environments. (The 3G S i-Phone only has a three-megapixel camera and no flash). So the Nexus has a light sensor designed to detect how bright an environment is enabling the device to adjust its screen brightness accordingly, to save battery life, which is a very necessary capability given the remarkable fact that the Nexus One has half the battery life capacity of the i-Phone – which has always been the i-Phone’s achilles heel.

Of course one can discuss Android and the open ecosystem Google are building which will certainly triumph Apple’s closed system in the long-term. And there are many things to speculate about in terms of future business models.

But at the most basic level there is a fundamental question: Why does a company like Google not invest in research to help solve the achilles heel of all mobile communications: namely, short battery life?

What Goolge have signalled with Nexus One is that they are followers rather than leaders in the mobile communication space. More importantly, they are not solving key user problems but are thinking about their business models and focusing on their competitors instead.

The i-Phone at least transformed the mobile communication user interface by introducing an effective touchscreen and a navigation system that is instinctive and simple to use. Nexus One has not advanced this nor any other dimension of the user experience. While the device can be bought unlocked, the telephony experience at the heart of the device still remains tied to the existing mobile operator’s capabilities – capabilities that have not altered the communications experience in any significant way for the past Century.

From what I can tell from the launch as described by the Washington Post , the only really innovative thing was the Google demonstrators who appear to have been wearing white lab coats (see the photo gallery here). Cute indeed, but worrying. The biggest concern is that Nexus One represents Google’s descent into mediocrity, dressed up in white lab coats, but mediocre nevertheless.

The innovation prospects for 2010 are looking slim I’m afraid.

Filed under: Innovation, R&D and Innovation, ,

THE CORPORATE SHIFT FROM R to D AND SHORTERMISM

A new Booz & Company’s annual study of the world’s biggest corporate R&D spenders, reported on Strategy-business.com, finds that most companies have stuck with their innovation programs despite the recession. While many are boosting spending to compete more effectively in the upturn, the report confirms the shift from Research to Development (as noted on this blog in numerous posts), increased risk-aversion and  short-term pragmatism.

The Booz & Company’s report contains a number of important statistics about R&D spending and the trends underlying these. It found that the world’s biggest innovation spenders increased their R&D spending by 5.7 percent in 2008, a slower rate of growth than the prior year’s 10 percent increase, but in line with the group’s 6.5 percent increase in worldwide sales. On a quantitative level this increase in spending looks impressive given that operating income for the group fell 8.6 percent in 2008, and net income plummeted 34 percent.

More than two-thirds of the companies included in this year’s Global Inno­vation 1000 maintained or increased R&D spending in 2008 despite a third of the companies reporting a financial loss for the year. However, the recession has certainly had an impact.

Recessionary Effects

The Global Innovation 1000 have certainly not been immune to the recession. Overall, they spent $532 billion on R&D in 2008, a healthy 5.7 percent increase over 2007, but well below the 10 percent increase from 2006 to 2007. Total sales were up 6.5 percent, to $15 trillion — but again, it was a significantly smaller increase than the 10 percent gain this same group registered between 2006 and 2007. Thus the group’s R&D intensity — innovation spending as a percentage of sales — remained the same at 3.6 percent.

Not all companies maintained or boosted R&D spending. Caution appears to be high: more than a quarter of the Global In­novation 1000 cut their innovation budgets in 2008 while the top 20 innovation spenders increased re­search and development by only 3.2 percent, compared with 10.7 percent for these companies in the previous year. Further­more, the early evidence indicates that as companies entered 2009, spending on innovation slowed further. This has been fueled by steeper declines in sales and income: among the 522 companies reporting results for the first quarter of 2009, R&D spending decreased by 7.4 percent — which is still less than half the rate of their 18.5 percent decline in sales.

Worrying trends:

Despite the quantitative figures reported, the qualitative trends underlying these trends gives grounds for concern. The report draws three trends out which confirm the most worrying longer-term trends. These are and I quote:

  • As a rule, companies are performing less pure and applied research. Instead, they are concentrating their R&D budgets on product development and engineering. This has been a trend for several years — indeed, 44 percent of survey respondents said they spend less than 20 percent of their R&D budget on basic research and advanced development — but it became even more pronounced during the recession. Managers hope to bring new products to market to take advantage of the upcoming recovery. Nearly 40 percent of respondents said their companies are shifting re­sources from basic research in order to prioritize new product launches.
  • The downturn has encouraged many companies — 40 percent, in our survey — to speed up their efforts to make the innovation process more efficient.
  • In response to the downturn, companies have become more risk averse; nearly half of survey respondents say that their companies are now more conservative than before. Companies are changing the criteria they use when giving new products the green light, tightening their relationships with customers and consumers, and watching their competitors, and the marketplace, more carefully.

The report highlights that every top executive interviewed said their companies are working hard to spend smarter — to get more bang for their R&D buck. What this means is an increased focus on improving the returns on innovation investments, in both the short-term and the long:

  • More than 40 percent of survey respondents said their companies were focusing on process improvements to change R&D spend during the downturn, and a similar number reported that they were getting better at killing bad projects;
  • More than a third of companies surveyed, for instance, said they were terminating more exploratory projects that lacked specific time lines; and,
  • More than 40 percent said their companies were focusing more on newer products that have the potential to grow faster.

While searching for efficiencies is to be expected, like it or not, there is a relentless logic at play here which despite the best intentions can only negatively impact on innovation in the future. Short-termism and pragmatism, trends that were in full evidence before the global recession, are now being entrenched into recession-based management practices. This is best expressed by Alan Grant, senior vice president for R&D in developing markets at Kraft Foods Inc. when he argues as follows:

For the past two or three years, we have been looking at our R&D portfolio, focusing on fewer, bigger ideas as opposed to lots of incremental little things. What the recession has done is change the filters through which we view the portfolio. Which of these products might we bring to the front and which might we choose to back pedal on, given the challenging economic times?

While short-term financial speculation got us into this mess in the first place, this report reveals just how far a short-term, risk averse and pragmatic approach is now being entrenched in the innovation practices of the world’s top global companies. At one level this is inevitable. Recessions focus the mind. But this report highlights how the recession is strengthening a risk-averse, short-term pragmatic business culture which, while recognising the importance of innovation, seems to be powerless to take the longer-term measures to guarantee it into the future.

Filed under: Economics of Innovation, R&D and Innovation, Risk and Innovation

THE RISE OF ASIA’S CLEANTECH ‘SILICON VALLEYS’?

According to an article on Cleantechbrief.com Asian countries are poised to outspend the United States on clean energy infrastructure and technology by a factor of three-to-one through 2013.

A new report from the Breakthrough Institute and Information Technology and Innovation Foundation Rising Tigers, Sleeping Giant states that the governments of China, Japan and South Korea will invest $519 billion in clean technology between 2009 and 2013, compared to $172 billion by the U.S. government. Climate and energy legislation, passed in the United States in June, would contribute $28.7 billion of the $172 billion five-year total. China alone will spend $440 billion to $660 billion over the next 10 years on cleantech.

The report which highlights the investment gap argues that “the United States will import the overwhelming majority of clean energy technologies it deploys.” It states that apparently 85% of U.S. President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus cleantech grants went to foreign firms suggesting the US is now lagging significantly.

Whatever your opinion on cleantech the report is important because it highlights an investment trend in longer-term research in Asia. Asian governments are taking a much more direct and coordinated approach while the US is characterised by a more “sporadic regulatory approach”.

Why is this significant? Because Asian countries by pursuing a more systematic approach are creating innovation clusters which combine universities, manufacturers, R&D labs, suppliers and other firms much like ‘the Pentagon helped create Silicon Valley in the fifties and sixties’. Ironically, these clusters will be attractive to US companies who are already making large investments in countries like China.

Private sector cleantech – China at the forefront

The success of Asia government strategy can already be seen in terms of the growth of private sector cleantech funding. Between 2000 and 2008 the US attracted $52 billion in private capital for renewable energy technologies; but China alone attracted $41 billion. However, China secured more private investment in this area than the US for the first time in 2008.

The report’s message is a big warning:

Small, indirect and uncoordinated incentives are not sufficient to outcompete Asia’s cleantech tigers…To regain economic leadership in the global clean energy industry, U.S. energy policy must include large, direct and coordinated investments in clean technology R&D, manufacturing, deployment and infrastructure.

The real question is whether there remains any belief or stomach for creating a new cleantech Silicon Valley in the US today. The short-term and increasingly risk-averse business and government culture of the past decades suggests this is not going to happen – unless fear of the East can be galvanised in a caricatured reenactment of the Cold War.

This report highlights how the shift away from longer-term thinking and the goals of pure research in the West is now being reflected in real investment and opportunity gaps. And this is just the beginning.

Filed under: Economics of Innovation, R&D and Innovation, ,

IN DEFENCE OF RESEARCH FOR RESEARCH’S SAKE

Anyone concerned about innovation and the decline of Research as opposed to the rise in Development in R&D spending should read this provocative article on the Times Higher Education site defending ‘useless’ knowledge by Claire Fox of the Institute of Ideas.

In defending scholarship for its own sake, she eloquently argues against the fashion for “evidence-based” research which is increasingly forcing academia to deliver “advocacy research”, basically to endorse government policies. Her demand for the pursuit of knowledge for knowledge’s sake ends with the following call to arms:

It’s time to mount a battle of ideas – in academia and in the public sphere – to defend scholarship per se, and turn it into a beacon of human achievement and aspiration – freed from its subordination to pragmatic, immediate objectives. Let battle commence.

This same instrumentalism – the subordination to pragmatic, immediate objectives – is precisely the same dynamic we see in the sphere of innovation and business today: longer-term Research is being increasingly subordinated to a short-term pragmatic culture of exploiting existing knowledge to develop products or services that can be commercialised immediately. Anyone who shares concern about the implications of contemporary culture’s short-term pragmatism should read this article, and join the debate at a Battle of Ideas Satellite event Don and dusted: is the age of the scholar over? on Wednesday 7 October at the British Museum, London.

You should also attend this year’s Battle of Ideas Festival on the weekend of October 31/1 November 2009 where many sessions will touch upon this and related themes and many more. (I will also be participating in a keynote debate Rethinking Privacy in an age of Disclosure and Sharing with fellow panelists, Cory Doctorow, Peter Barron of Google, and journalist Anna Minton. More on this on this blog next week).

Filed under: R&D and Innovation, ,

PATENT PRAGMATISM: A THREAT TO R&D AND INNOVATION

The Economist of 12th September carried an important article on the new trend of patents as financial assets. Reporting this at a time when the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)  has just published its new report World Intellectual Property Indicators 2009 which shows that the number of patents being registered is now falling for the first time in years, this trend represents a sea-change in how patents have come to be regarded. The financialisation of intellectual property (IP) is actually the evolution of a longer-term trend of business short-termism and patent pragmatism divorced from innovation.

The Economist notes that the view of patents has been changing for some time: ‘What was once viewed as a stodgy legal asset is fast becoming a sought-after financial one’. But this is not particularly surprising. The emergence of patents as financial assets is an expression of how today’s risk-averse business culture with its focus upon short-term and predictable market returns, has reduced innovation to extremely narrow and instrumental terms. Once regarded as an indicator of innovation, patents have increasingly become an end in themselves – a means to recoup costs of R&D and to minimise the risks of investment in R&D.

The financialisation of patents is just the latest expression of the trend towards short-term financialisation rather than longer-term investment in R&D and innovation.

EXPRESSION OF A LONGER-TERM TREND

The Economist notes that this trend is still at an early stage but is growing relatively quickly – by perhaps 20-30 per cent a year. They cite this figure from Coller Capital, an investment firm that has snapped up IBM’s portfolio of medical-device and health-care patents. Intellectual Ventures, based near Seattle, has spent a large proportion of its $5 billion fund on buying patents: 27,000 to be precise. Other players exist and the field is growing.

On one level, the selling of IP is understandable and inevitable. For individual inventors and universities, many of whom lack the resources to chase infringers or to develop their IP effectively, the recession is forcing them to sell in order to survive. But at another level, particularly for many large technology providers, this behaviour represents a new phase of short-term pragmatism. As Peter Holden of Coller’s remarks, ‘Well-timed patent sales are also a way for public technology firms to meet quarterly profit targets’. Managing their IP more pragmatically means selling off patents that are peripheral to their core businesses. Patents effectively become an end in themselves, divorced from any innovation that the company may have pursued in the future.

PATENTS DIVORCED FROM INNOVATION

The current recession has certainly speeded up the longer-term squeeze on R&D budgets. As the demand for a rate of return on investment in R&D has grown, businesses have become increasingly risk-averse and wary of experimentation or unproven new ideas. Instead they have placed an emphasis upon profiting from the ones they already own. The result has been, as I have argued elsewhere on this blog, the reduction of innovation to extremely narrow and instrumental terms. Increasingly, patent production has become more closely related to the development of patent portfolios as a source of revenue in itself.

Ironically, one of the best expressions of this dynamic is the proliferation of patents themselves.

Although WIPO now suggest we are seeing a decline in globally of registered patent fillings for the first time, this is the opposite trend of the early part of this decade. According to the OECD, the early part of this decade saw an explosion of patent registrations: more than 442,000 patents applications were filed in Europe and the US in 2002, compared to around 224,000 a decade earlier. In their revealing study of the patent system in the US, Innovation and Its Discontents: How Our Broken Patent System is Endangering Innovation and Progress, and What to Do About It authors Adam B Jaffe and Josh Lerner made the key point back in 2004, that this increase in patenting does not reflect an explosion of inventiveness or innovation. They argued that this increase was accompanied by a proliferation of patent awards of dubious merit. This was supported by another 2004 study by James Bessen, a researcher at Boston University’s School of Law, and Robert Hunt, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, that showed that by the end of the 1990s, firms were able to obtain more than twice as many software patents for every R&D dollar spent than at the start of the decade. They concluded that the growth in the number of patents was now exceeding the increase in R&D expenditure which indicated that ‘cheap’ patents were being used as a substitute for more R&D. The Economist concluded in their  survey on patents and technology in 2005 that industry  was doing too much patenting merely for the sake of it.

The proliferation of ‘cheap’ patents in the earlier part of this decade  was really an expression of how patents had rapidly become an end in themselves and, ironically, had become a substitute for more R&D spending. Developing a patent portfolio to exploit financially, became a key means of both minimising the risks of R&D investment and competition. For example, in this period, a company like IBM earned over $1 billion annually from its patent portfolio while a company like HP saw its revenue from licensing quadruple in less than three years to over $200m in 2005. Microsoft, a company that held a mere five patents in 1990 (when it was at its monopolistic height) rapidly began to file thousands of patents. Like many other large companies, Microsoft created a new Corporate Division to exchange its technology for cash or equity in start-up firms and to pursue patent infringements. The result? A massive rise of patent-related litigation.

LITIGATION AND FINANCIALISATION

The increase in patent-related litigation has increasingly made lawyers the key players in the competitive struggle between firms rather than entrepreneurs and researchers. (Even Dilbert has observed this trend). Litigation licensing units in large firms have successfully extracted license agreements and/or past royalties from smaller rivals. Texas Instrument, for example, has in recent years netted close to $1 billion annually from patent licenses and settlements resulting from an aggressive enforcement policy. In some years, revenues from these sources have exceeded net income from product sales!

It is not only large companies with patent portfolios that have increased their litigation practices. A new practice of ‘patent trolling’ has emerged – a practice where large companies are sued for dubious patent infringements by non practicing entities. Google published a statement on their Public Policy Blog, for example, stating that 90% of companies suing them for patent infringement were non practicing entities, and that in lots of cases, the patents had been “invented” by the patent lawyers themselves. See stopsoftwarepatents.org.

Patent trolling is to be expected and will grow as IP is increasingly financialised. Opportunism in business is nothing new. But the pursuit of patents as financial assets reveals how far (and fast) the trend towards short-term instrumentalism in innovation has gone. By concentrating on existing portfolios, patents as financial assets are a substitute for more R&D spending.

SHORT-TERMISM

This is not an abstract point to make about what might happen in the future. Its impact is already here and can be seen in the practices of companies like Novartis who now invest huge amounts of time and money in pursuing legal loopholes to extend the lifespan of their patents, rather than develop new ones. While this may squeeze the last drop of profit out of existing blockbuster drugs, it comes at the expense of their own development of new and genuinely innovative medicines.

This may very well ensure more profits in the immediate future through exploiting the patent system in this way rather than investing in long-term R&D, but the approach smacks of staggering short-termism. Last year, only two research-based pharmaceutical companies generated more than 10 per cent of their revenue from “major” products less than three years old, and there are no signs of an upturn.

The greatest danger of patents as financial assets, however, is the threat of the institutionalised separation of R&D from innovation itself. The emphasis is upon the knowable and the exploitation of what exists, to gain the short-term return. But longer-term experimentation, discovery and unexpected outcomes are now in danger of being expunged from corporate culture and practice altogether. This is not a trend to celebrate but to resist.

Filed under: Economics of Innovation, R&D and Innovation, , ,

TEDxLeeds: innovating out of the recession

Last week I spoke at the TEDxLeeds event on the recession and innovation, organised by Imran Ali and Herb Kim.

It was a well attended event with a very well-informed and engaged audience and judging by the twitter chatter, (#TEDxLeeds) the event seemed to go down extremely well. (Congrats to Imran and Herb and all involved! See the Ian Forrester’s blog post on cubicgarden.com for another view of the event). What was refreshing was the enthusiasm in the audience for challenging the existing culture of limits and low expectations. The points about the need for more risk-taking and greater experimentation, and opposition to the contemporary business culture of short-term pragmatism versus longer-term investment in research, appeared to resonate with a large section of the audience.This highlights that this is the time to develop bold new arguments for why we need

  • more long-term investment in research (as opposed to the short-term funding of development);
  • more experimentation and less emphasis upon predictable outcomes driven by narrow ROI considerations; and
  • more failure to build success.

Watch this space!

Below are some of the slides I used during my presentation. The key points should be obvious. But in case the Kennedy and Moon slides confuse, my point was simply that the US Space Program (despite being rooted in the politics of the Cold War) provided a bold vision and impetus to the generation of ground-breaking new research and innovation. The research created new industries while NASA provided impetus for the formation of thousands of new companies and product innovation. It is this kind of boldness that is so noticeably absent in our society today.

(This presentation has been selected amongst the ‘Top Presentations of the Day’ on the SlideShare homepage).

Filed under: R&D and Innovation, Risk and Innovation, , ,

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