Futures-Diagnosis

Diagnosing the future of the Internet and innovation and their social impact

IF SCIENCE IS SO VITAL, WHY ARE SCIENTISTS SO AMBIVALENT ABOUT THEIR KNOWLEDGE?

The Science is Vital demonstration and rally last  Saturday, was the first time I have been at  protest event surrounded by young people in white coats enthusiastically cheering about how vital science is to the future. Of course there were a lot of crusty, bespectacled, bearded  ’science’ types, but the presence of so many younger people and their passion was truly exciting.

The rally was very respectable but passionate. Of all the speakers, Colin Blakemore was the most poignant. His message was very simple but vital: society needs to invest in scientific research if it is to shape the unknown future. Unlike many of the other speakers, his defence of spending on science was not solely predicated on the economic benefits it might create for Britain in the future. He argued for the intrinsic value of knowledge and the human potential of solving problems we don’t even know exist yet.

DEFENSIVENESS

This was refreshing and speaks to one of the key assumptions we have incorporated into Big Potatoes: The London manifesto for Innovation. While numerous speakers flattered the British scientific community (for punching above its weight), their arguments, which centred more on the economic value of science, began to worry me. The message promoted is that science is vital not because of its intrinsic value but because of its potential economic consequences.

While economic benefits are important, there is a problem with defending science in this way. What if research does not yield immediate economic returns? What if it takes decades before ‘useless’ research becomes relevant? But most importantly, if this is the criteria by which we judge the legitimacy of science we destroy the scientific method itself: scientific relevance cannot be stipulated at the outset.

The most worrying thing about the current debate is the defensive character of the scientific community. There is a palpable lack of confidence in justifying science in terms of its capacity to develop new knowledge as a noble goal in itself  and as part of human-centred problem solving and the ability to control nature to reduce uncertainty. By constantly slipping back into justifying the pursuit of knowledge in narrow, immediate economic terms, the authority of knowledge is undermined.

A few examples of the problem

There are numerous examples of this problem. Take Europe’s Large Hadron Collider. The project justifies its existence (according to the website) by stressing that one of its byproducts may be new science ‘that can be applied almost immediately’. Does this mean that all that investment would have been wasted if the project does not deliver immediate benefits?

Take another example, the most significant development in UK biomedical science for a generation, the new UK Centre for Medical Research and Innovation. The aim of this project is :

‘to understand the basic biology underlying human health, finding ways to prevent and treat the most significant diseases affecting people today.’

While these goals can only be admired, a closer examination of the project reveals an unease about this mission. In their vision and strategy we find the following two points:

  • It will nurture a culture in which clinical and commercial translation is valued as highly as discovery research.
  • It will engage with the public to build strong relationships with local communities.

‘Commercial translation’ – making money – is ‘valued as highly as discovery research’? Can this really be true? Again, what if the research finds no applicability for the next 40 years? Does that mean UKCMRI has failed? And why build strong relationships with local communities? Is there some strong medical or research reason why UKCMRI wants to build strong relationships with the people of Camden? In fact so concerned is UKCMRI with justifying its role they promise to provide ‘community facilities’ as part of their community building exercise. Is UKCMRI going to be the UK’s premier medical research institute or a local community centre where the people of Camden can drop in for a hot cuppa?

The same unease about justifying the goals of a research project can be seen in another grand initiative undertaken by one of the UK’s top research Universities, University College London Research (UCL RESEARCH). In their research GRAND CHALLENGES which are indeed grand (Global Health, Sustainable Cities, Intercultural Interaction and Human Wellbeing) they justify their ‘Expertise’ as follows:

We are world leaders across the breadth of academic disciplines – from neuroscience to urban planning, particle physics to health informatics and environmental law – and we have an ongoing commitment to innovation and relevance.

‘…an ongoing commitment to…relevance’? Albert Einstein would be turning in his grave at the thought of making relevance a commitment to solving grand scientific challenges. As he is famously purported to have said: ‘If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn’t be called research’. But it seems that today the scientific community is uncomfortable with justifying its existence by insisting that research leads to the production of new knowledge which is different from the transfer or application of existing knowledge.

This reveals that the scientific community is uneasy with unpredictability (which ought to be its war cry). It is the fundamental unpredictability of research that nourishes experimentation, throws up new problems and opens fresh avenues of enquiry. As a result new knowledge creates not simply incremental or relevant or commercial advance but, in many cases, whole new industries.

When the scientific community feel it necessary to justify their existence on the pragmatic grounds of relevance or commercialism they shoot themselves in the foot and undermine science itself. The authority of science and scientific knowledge is undermined which can only result in an even greater demand for certainty in outcomes – an even faster move away from the pursuit of knowledge.

Science is vital, but this debate is even more so.

Filed under: Authority, Innovation, ,

Future City: Is London missing out on the potential of new technologies?

I will be participating in the Story of London Festival tomorrow evening (Thursday 8 October) at the British Library in a debate about London and the future of innovation.

This is very timely. Just today the EU has declared an ‘Innovation emergency’ recognising that Europe is now falling behind globally in the investment in and development of new research and its commercialisation. EU officials have stated their goal is having 3 per cent of EU gross domestic product invested in research and development by 2020 – a target that matches US president Barack Obama’s plans, although Europe has struggled to hit 2 per cent of GDP over the past decade. Even this seems extremely unambitious.

This highlights that there is now a growing understanding of the innovation crisis facing European, indeed Western States. It is this reality and its underlying causes that I intend to raise in tomorrow night’s debate which is based on the theme ‘London, Innovation and the Future’, focusing on London as a site of innovation and the value of innovation to the future of the city.

Distractions, toys vs problem solving

The publicity material for the debate states that ‘historically London has been the site of great innovations, and digital technologies are raising further our ability to innovate’. It asks some serious questions:

  • ‘Are we getting distracted by shiny new technologies and ignoring real innovation?
  • ‘Does London have the ambition and vision to harness such developments?’

As one of the co-authors of Big Potatoes: the London Manifesto for Innovation, my answers should come as no surprise: definitely ‘yes’ to the first, and definitely ‘NO’ to the second…But for my reasons, you will have to come to the debate.

This should be an interesting evening given the topic and the speakers who are participating.

Fellow speakers:
Dr Hermann Hauser, co-founder, Amadeus Capital Partners
Iain Gray, chief executive, Technology Strategy Board
Adam Hart-Davis, writer and broadcaster
Chair: David Rowan, editor, Wired UK

I look forward to seeing some of you at the British Library at 6.30pm.

Filed under: Innovation, , ,

US CONSUMERS SPENT $2BN MORE ON CRISPS THAN THE FEDERAL GOV’T'S TOTAL INVESTMENT ON ENERGY R&D IN 2009

When we published Big Potatoes: the London Manifesto for Innovation last year we never anticipated potatoes would ever  feature literally in headlines about the crisis of innovation facing the West. But the innovation debate works in mysterious ways as witnessed in the startling statistic to emerge from the report issued by the National Academies Press Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited; namely, that American consumers spend more on crisps than the Federal Government invests in energy R&D!

As journalist Janet Raloff correctly points out : ‘There’s something wrong, here, when Americans are more willing to empty their wallets for the junk food that will swell their waistlines than for investments in the engine driving the creation of jobs, economic growth and national security’. What she and this illustrates is that America is facing a crisis in innovation. Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited, paints a damning picture of the decline of US innovation and graphically demonstrates the depth of the crisis it is now facing.

Before listing some examples of this crisis from the report, it is important to point out that this report was written by the same blue -ribbon panel of US research leaders who published a call to arms in 2005 called Rising Above the Gathering Storm. This Committee is chaired by Norman R Augustine, the retired chairman and CEO of Lockheed Martin Corporation and a former Undersecretary of the Army and contains luminaries which include Craig Barrett, retired chairman and CEO of Intel, Richard Levin, president of Yale University and the Frederick William Beinecke Professor of Economics, Lee R Raymond, the retired chairman of the Board and CEO of Exxon Mobil Corporation and other CEOs and leading academics.

Thus, this is no lightweight report, and nor are its conclusions hysterical. Its conclusions however, could be drawn from the Big Potatoes Manifesto.

Knowledge, technology and unexpected outcomes

The original Gathering Storm competitiveness report published in 2005 focused on the ability of America to compete for jobs in the evolving global economy. The new report attempts to assess what has changed in the years since the first report on American competitiveness was written. It paints a daunting outlook for America if it continues on the ‘perilous path it has been following in recent decades with regard to sustained competitiveness’.

The fundamental point the Gathering Storm report made in 2005 was the connection between knowledge, particularly technology knowledge, productivity, competitiveness and employment.

The report drew upon Nobel Laureate Robert Solow’s economic work that showed, in part, that well over half of the growth in United States output per hour during the first half of the twentieth century could be attributed to advancements in knowledge, particularly technology. This period was, of course, before the technology explosion that has been witnessed in recent decades. The National Academies Gathering Storm committee concluded in 2005 that a primary driver of the future economy and concomitant creation of jobs would be innovation, largely derived from advances in science and engineering. As the report points out,

‘While only four percent of the nation’s work force is composed of scientists and engineers, this group disproportionately creates jobs for the other 96 percent.’

In the new report, the authors draw out the intimate connection between the discovery of new knowledge through science and how this impacts upon the creation of new industries, jobs and thus economic growth.

This connection is at the core of the Big Potatoes Manifesto.

The report is so elegant in its prose that its worth quoting this section at some length:

‘When scientists discovered how to decipher the human genome it opened entire new opportunities in many fields including medicine. Similarly, when scientists and engineers discovered how to increase the capacity of integrated circuits by a factor of one million as they have in the past forty years, it enabled entrepreneurs to replace tape recorders with iPods, maps with GPS, pay phones with cell phones, two-dimensional X-rays with three-dimensional CT scans, paperbacks with electronic books, slide rules with computers, and much, much more. Further, the pace of creation of new knowledge appears by almost all measures to be accelerating. Further, the pace of creation of new knowledge appears by almost all measures to be accelerating.

‘Importantly, leverage is at work here. It is not simply the scientist, engineer and entrepreneur who benefit from progress in the laboratory or design center; it is also the factory worker who builds items such as those cited above, the advertiser who promotes them, the truck driver who delivers them, the salesperson who sells them, and the maintenance person who repairs them—not to mention the benefits realized by the user. Further, each job directly created in the chain of manufacturing activity generates, on average, another 2.5 jobs in such unrelated endeavors as operating restaurants, grocery stores, barber shops, filling stations and banks. Progress enabling products such as those mentioned above in the information fields is built upon the work of a few individuals who decades ago were investigating something called solid state physics—none of whom probably ever thought about CT scans, GPS or iPods—the latter of which can enable one to hold 160,000 books in one’s pocket—any more than one today can predict the breakthroughs a half century hence.’

Five years a go the Gathering Storm report noted four very disturbing trends underpinning America’s position with respect to each of the principal ingredients of innovation and competitiveness—Knowledge Capital, Human Capital and the existence of a creative “Ecosystem”:

  • With regard to Knowledge Capital it was noted that federal government funding of R&D as a fraction of GDP has declined by 60 percent in 40 years;
  • With regard to Human Capital, it was observed that over two-thirds of the engineers who receive PhD’s from United States universities are not United States citizens;
  • With regard to the Creative Ecosystem it was found that United States firms spend over twice as much on litigation as on research;
  • With regard to United States K-12 education,the US on average was a laggard among industrial economies—while costing more per student than any other OECD country.

So what’s changed since The Gathering Storm?

The unanimous view of the committee members participating in the preparation of the latest report is that the US’s outlook has worsened. While progress has been made in certain areas—for example, launching the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy—the rise of national debt (from $8 trillion to $13 trillion) means there is now less latitude to fix the problems. Moreover, in spite of sometimes heroic efforts and occasional very bright spots, the overall public school system—or more accurately 14,000 systems—has shown little sign of improvement, particularly in mathematics and science. Finally, and perhaps most worrying for the Report’s authors, ‘many other nations have been markedly progressing, thereby affecting America’s relative ability to compete effectively for new factories, research laboratories, administrative centers—and jobs’.

Their conclusion?

Innovate, and in order to foster innovation, strengthen the public school system and invest in basic scientific research.

And the need for this is now compelling. Since 2005 the US’s position has deteriorated as the following examples quoted from the report illustrate:

  • Thirty years ago, ten percent of California’s general fund went to higher education and three percent to prisons. Today, nearly eleven percent goes to prisons and eight percent to higher education;
  • China is now second in the world in its publication of biomedical research articles, having recently surpassed Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Spain;
  • The United States now ranks 22nd among the world’s nations in the density of broadband Internet penetration and 72nd in the density of mobile telephony subscriptions;
  • In 2009, 51 percent of United States patents were awarded to non-United States companies;
  • The World Economic Forum ranks the United States 48th in quality of mathematics and science education;
  • Of Wal-Mart’s 6,000 suppliers, 5,000 are in China;
  • There are sixteen energy companies in the world with larger reserves than the largest United States company;
  • IBM’s once promising PC business is now owned by a Chinese company;
  • The legendary Bell Laboratories is now owned by a French company;

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (computer manufacturing) employs more people than the worldwide employment of Apple, Dell, Microsoft, Intel and Sony combined;

  • No new nuclear plants and no new petroleum refineries have been built in the United States in a third of a century, a period characterized by intermittent energy-related crises;
  • Only four of the top ten companies receiving United States patents last year were United States companies;
  • The world’s largest airport is now in China;
  • In 2000 the number of foreign students studying the physical sciences and engineering in United States graduate schools for the first time surpassed the number of United States students;
  • Federal funding of research in the physical sciences as a fraction of GDP fell by 54 percent in the 25 years after 1970. The decline in engineering funding was 51 percent;
  • GE has now located the majority of its R&D personnel outside the United States;
  • Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is now lower than when the first personal computer was built in 1975;
  • In the 2009 rankings of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation the U.S. was in sixth place in global innovation-based competitiveness, but ranked 40th in the rate of change over the past decade;
  • China has now replaced the United States as the world’s number one high-technology exporter;
  • Eight of the ten global companies with the largest R&D budgets have established R&D facilities in China, India or both;
  • During a recent period during which two high-rise buildings were constructed in Los Angeles, over 5,000 were built in Shanghai;
  • In a survey of global firms planning to build new R&D facilities, 77 per cent say they will build in China or India;
  • Sixty-nine percent of United States public school students in fifth through eighth grade are taught mathematics by a teacher without a degree or certificate in mathematics;
  • Ninety-three percent of United States public school students in fifth through eighth grade are taught the physical sciences by a teacher without a degree or certificate in the physical sciences;
  • The United States ranks 27th among developed nations in the proportion of college students receiving undergraduate degrees in science or engineering;
  • The United States graduates more visual arts and performing arts majors than engineers;
  • The total annual federal investment in research in mathematics, the physical sciences and engineering is now equal to the increase in United States healthcare costs every nine weeks;
  • In less than 15 years, China has moved from 14th place to second place in published research articles (behind the United States);
  • For the next 5-7 years the United States, due to budget limitations, will only be able to send astronauts to the Space Station by purchasing rides on Russian rockets;
  • China’s Tsinghua and Peking Universities are the two largest suppliers of students who receive PhD’s—in the United States;
  • Since 1995 the United States share of world shipments of photovoltaics has fallen from over 40 percent to well under 10 percent—while the overall market has grown by nearly a factor of one hundred;
  • By 2008, public spending in the United States on energy R&D had declined to less than half what it was three decades ago in real purchasing power. By 2005, private investment had declined to less than one-third of the total;
  • A single Japanese automobile model constitutes about half of the U.S. hybrid market;
  • Japan has 1524 miles of high-speed rail; France has 1163; and China just passed 742 miles. The United States has 225. China has 5612 miles now under construction and one plant produces 200 trains each year capable of operating at 217 mph. The United States has none under construction;
  • Roughly half of America’s outstanding public debt is now foreign owned—with China the largest holder;
  • There are 60 new nuclear power plants currently being built in the world. One of these is in the United States;
  • Between 1996 and 1999, 157 new drugs were approved in the United States. In a corresponding period ten years later the number dropped to 74.57;
  • Youths between the ages of 8 and 18 average seven-and-a-half hours a day in front of video games, television and computers—often multi-tasking;
  • In 2007 China became second only to the United States in the estimated number of people engaged in scientific and engineering research and development;
  • In January 2010, China’s BGI made the biggest purchase of genome sequencing equipment ever;
  • In May 2010, a supercomputer produced in China was ranked the world’s second-fastest;
  • According to the ACT College Readiness report, 78 percent of high school graduates did not meet the readiness benchmark levels for one or more entry-level college courses in mathematics, science, reading and English.

It doesn’t bear thinking about what a similar audit of the UK and many other European countries would reveal. For anyone skeptical about the claims made in the Big Potatoes Manifesto, this report should be a wake-up call. It reveals the consequences of a business culture that has become risk-averse and which is driven by short-term pragmatism and instrumentalism.

Filed under: Innovation, R&D and Innovation, , ,

SPIGIT INNOVATION SUMMIT 2010

Tomorrow I am traveling to California to participate on behalf of Open-Knowledge in the spigit Innovation Summit 2010 which takes place at the Ritz Carlton Hotel, Half-Moon Bay, 19-20 August.

The event will be focused on crowd-sourced idea management and innovation, emerging trends and the best practices for the social enterprise of today and tomorrow. It has a stunning set of speakers including thought leaders like Andrew McAfee and Charlene Li, the founder of the Altimeter Group.

The ‘Three E’s of Innovation’

My talk will focus on  how informal social networks within organisations linked to an innovation platform like spigit can significantly speed up both the quality and quantity of exploitable ideas for successful innovation.

I will present our ‘Three E’s of Innovation’ model which is a social networked approach to the process of innovation within organisations. The ‘model’ examines the informal relationships between the Explorers, the Engagers and finally, the Exploiters of ideas. My talk will focus on the synergies between our networked approach to innovation, and the power of spigit’s Enterprise platform.

All organisations, regardless of their formal innovation processes, rely upon informal relationships to get things done. However, formal processes more often than not prevent many good ideas from ever being implemented. This can take many forms, from a breakdown between marketing and product developers/engineers; R&D versus finance, etc.

But by identifying the informal roles people play across the organisation with regard to innovation, (through Social Network Analysis) and allowing these different people to populate spigit’s powerful innovation platform (with all the resulting visibility and recognition) the best of all worlds is achieved. Not only do the best ideas rise to the top through the operation of spigit’s ideation software, but the social networks embedded in these ideas simultaneously contain the vital validation and exploitation networks necessary for implementation. Good ideas can then be implemented and innovation can be realised far more rapidly.

It will be interesting to see what response this networked approach to innovation gets at the event.

I will be blogging from the event and will provide some thoughts on emerging trends and best practices for the social enterprise of today, that arise during the discussion.

Filed under: Innovation, ,

MILLENNIALS AND ENTERPRISE2.O

In recent weeks there has been an increased debate about and focus on ‘Millennials’ and Enterprise2.0, most recently articulated in Dennis Howlett’s ‘Irregular Enterprise’ Blog on ZDNet. While I share many frustrations with those skeptical of the claims being made (particularly, that only young people seamlessly use Web2.0 tools and applications in everyday life and that anyone over the age of 24 is past it and just doesn’t get it) much of the opposition is equally impressionistic and thus misses important development with huge implications for the future of the Enterprise.

The opposition to the exaggerated Millennial impact upon the Enterprise usually consists of a rejection of the claims about how younger generations coming into the workplace will fundamentally challenge and transform existing practices. They counterpose older generational increasing use of communication and social networking technologies (using themselves as their case study) arguing that they are as adept at collaborative interaction as the ‘digital kids’.

This approach is not only unhelpful, it is dangerously wrong. Why dangerous? Because it accepts a number underlying prejudices that if unchecked will inhibit the potential benefits of both the technologies and the behavioural changes many describe but fail to analyse correctly.

There are two myths that need countering within this debate. The first is the myth that young people today are naturally good with technology and are thus ‘digital whizzkids’. The second is that adult technology adoption is as good as, if not better than the ‘yoof’. Both revolve around a loss of adult authority which, I hope to demonstrate when applied in the enterprise setting, elides the critical distinction between participation and conscious collaboration.

If we are to realise the benefits of the technology and the behavioural changes these have enabled, then these issues need to be analysed in much greater depth – something which is sorely lacking in the Enterprise2.0 debate.

Much of what follows draws upon research conducted some years ago by Professor Frank Furedi and myself (a draft pdf can be downloaded here).

The real danger of this over simplified discussion is that the real insights into the behaviour of digital kids is lost in a haze of hyped imprecision

The myth of digital whizzkids

The myth of the digital whizzkid needs to be challenged for four reasons:

  • First, because it mistakenly assumes that young people effortlessly adopt digital technology into their lives because they are into the technology;
  • Secondly, because the myth of digitally savvy children is actually an expression of adult confusion about how to conduct their relations with children, which has little to do with children’s relationship to the new media;
  • Third, because it flatters children instead of critically engaging them in a quest to engage more fully with the technology itself; to understand the science and mathematics behind the magic of the digital world;
  • Fourth, because by reducing adults to the level of children in need of expert guidance, it infantilises serious questions regarding collaboration in the workplace. This confuses the self-centered ethos of social networking as practised by younger generations and now increasingly being adopted by adults, with collaboration with serious implications for social software adoption, usage and outcome for the Enterprise.

Before addressing the very serious Enterprise 2.0 side of this discussion it is necessary to go into some detail about younger people and communications technology.

Contemporary childhood and digital technology

If you want to understand how and why children adopt digital technologies into their lives, then understand how their experience of childhood has changed. In recent decades, childhood has been fundamentally reorganised around risk. Childhood has become perceived as an exceedingly dangerous experience – their health, outdoor activity, indoor activity, online activity, family life, peer relations, encounters with adults – are now represented as risky. Children are now frequently defined as ‘vulnerable’ or ‘at risk’.

The creation of the ‘indoor child’ whose leisure activities, increasingly dominated by new media, have been transferred to the ‘safety’ of the domestic sphere is one symptom of this risk consciousness. When children are allowed to venture outdoors, to play with friends or play sports, adults now supervise these activities. This decline of ‘street culture’ and the rise of ‘bedroom culture’ have a number of fundamental consequences:

  • First, children’s lives have increasingly become dominated by the presence of adults;
  • Second, digital technology is used by children to overcome their experience of isolation;
  • Third, peer communications result in a distinct peer culture that is digitally mediated and which seeks to gain a measure of independence through evading adult monitoring.

Thus, the changing character of childhood – particularly the shift from outdoor to indoor – has created a steady demand for tools and applications that help children manage their lives. This is the impetus behind their adoption and rapid internalisation of the technology. It is driven by their social needs, by their relationship to popular culture and their peers, not a love of technology. It also results in a number of important dynamics and conflicts with parents that shape this experience on both sides.

Intergenerational dynamic

While parents regard new technology as an educational tool, children regard it as a medium of self-expression, acknowledgement, entertainment and connectivity; parents approach to the new media is underwritten by the imperative of risk minimisation while children adopt and use it in part to gain a measure of freedom from adult supervision. Customisation, demarcation and self-expression are the requirements of a generation that regards self-expression as itself a form of communication. Above all else, they passionately seek to protect their interaction space from the monitoring of adults.

As the adult world has closed down physical space, children have successfully created space for themselves in the virtual world.

From this perspective, media technology is not something to be shared but is something to be customized, personalized and consumed privately out of the sight of adults. Indeed, this intergenerational dynamic is one of the key drivers of technology adoption by young people and which has resulted in the social networking behaviours and phenomena that now dominate society.

Enter the ‘digital whiz kid’

Many adults find it difficult to comprehend children’s digital activities. As a result, adults often wrongly attribute this to the ‘natural’ ability to manipulate new technology. Adult insecurities regarding the emerging peer culture are refracted through anxieties about their own technological incompetence. The belief that children are naturally creative users of digital technology is a myth fuelled by adult insecurities and expresses more about how adults have become confused about how to conduct their relations with children than anything to do with children and their relationship to the new media technologies.

For some time now, parents, teachers, and other adults involved with children have gone out of their way to cross the generational divide and become young people’s friends rather than their mentors. Uncertainties about adulthood are invariably linked to changing ideas about childhood. In a world where maturity is disparaged as being ‘past it’, and the older generation is seen as having no special claim to wisdom, parents can feel awkward about exercising authority.

These cultural trends have a profound influence in the ways that parents make sense of their children’s relationship with the new media. When it comes to new media technology, an intense sense of parental incompetence co-exists with the belief that children are naturally highly skilled computer-savvy whiz kids.  Those that argue that adults use of these technologies is as good as or even better than younger people’s have a point, but it is wrong to claim therefore that there is no difference in the relationship between these generations and the technology.

Why? Because there are a variety of good reasons why this relationship is qualitatively different and why the erosion of adult confidence has acquired a particularly intense manifestation in relation to the new media:

  • Unlike the younger generations that have grown up with these technologies, many adults have a limited and episodic relationship to them. Alan Kay’s rejoinder that anything invented after you are born is technology is apposite here;
  • Young people value and acquire computer expertise in order to achieve practical objectives. Children experience the media as an integral part of youth culture;
  • The internalisation of these technologies means that younger people no longer make a distinction between the on and offline worlds, it is a seamless continuum;
  • Adults tend to have a more distant and functional relationship to it;
  • Many aspects of the new media – gaming, texting, instant messaging, chatting etc. – are seen as part of young people’s world. This is an alien territory where adults find it even more difficult than in other areas of their lives to exercise their authority.

Thus, the presentation of children as media savvy and naturally gifted and ahead of their parents is merely another form that the idealisation of childhood assumes in Western society.

Many studies indicate that children do not possess natural talents and abilities, which are somehow lost as they make the transition to adulthood. The tendency to celebrate the natural aptitude of children distracts from understanding why their technical ability can sometime exceed those of adults. It is not natural ability but social isolation and a lack of autonomous space that prompts participation in the wider youth consumer culture and encourages engagement and experimentation with different forms of new media. Since it is one of the key markers of status in peer-to-peer relations, children have a strong incentive to familiarise themselves with the new media.

It is the imperative of youth consumer culture rather than a natural disposition to interact with new technology that explains why children often appear to be so ahead of adults.

It is the assimilation of this culture by the younger generations that gives them the technological edge over their elders. In so far as children’s technical competence exceeds their elder’s it reflects their proximity to and involvement in contemporary youth consumer culture. Nothing more nor less.

If Facebook were a nation, as the ‘social media gurus’ gleefully point out, it would be the most unproductive nation in the history of civilisation

Thus, the relationship between young people and technology is far more complex than the simple notion of ‘Digital Natives’ and ‘Digital Immigrants’ suggests. There is nothing natural or preordained about this relationship. It is a complex relationship, which stems from contemporary society and the lived experience of young people.

Infantilising the Enterprise?

So what does this mean for Enterprise2.0? In the first place, the defence of older generations in the workplace by arguing that they are as adept as younger people in technology use and collaborative practice is an expression of the undermining of adult confidence and not knowing how to deal with young people. It adds to the mystified character of the apparent generational and behavioural changes we see today, suggesting that what we experience is unprecedented with enormous implications for the future.

The Millennial issue in the workplace has become symptomatic of  the uncertainty of the ‘information age’ which exaggerates the novelty of the present at the expense of the past. This generational shift is regarded as unprecedented and a unique feature of our times. The workplace (and indeed, the world) is now divided into two periods: the past where everything remained the same with little change and the current moment with its constant change where change and disruption are incessant.

This rhetoric of unprecedented change is precisely that, rhetoric. What about the generational shift that occurred in the 1960s? The rise of the teenager in the post-War period was indeed unprecedented and had a huge impact on Western society. But did this result in the end of the enterprise as we know it? No, the exact opposite. It helped to forge the enterprise as we know it.

This exaggerated sense of change is problematic for three reasons:

  • First, it presents young people as the nexus of the reorganisation of the enterprise whereas in reality, young people need to be trained and mentored to fulfil their potential within the enterprise. Dressing this up as an Enterprise2.0 ‘insight’ is not only inaccurate (it is after just another form the crisis of adult authority assumes) it robs Enterprise2.0 of any business credibility;
  • Second, it infantilises collaboration. The reduction of collaboration – the conscious act of  working or labouring together for a common outcome – to the level of the self-centred egotistical behaviours central to youth participatory culture, is to rob it of its substance. This elevates form over content by over-estimating the behaviours of young people while under-estimating the real collaborative potential inherent in these behaviours (discussed below);
  • Third, it stresses the trivial rather than the substantial: the playful character of younger people’s media activities is just that, play. While there are elements of this that can be usefully adapted to online work environments, workflows and business processes are designed for specific outcomes not for fun. If Facebook were a nation, as the social media gurus gleefully point out, it would be the most unproductive nation in the history of civilisation!

By stressing what is so unprecedented about this behaviour, the advocates of the Millennial impact on Enterprise2.0 are shooting themselves in the foot. Instead of stressing what is disruptive and unprecedented we need to focus upon the continuities with the past. Continuous improvement rather than disruptive uncertainty will more readily gain an audience within the enterprise.

The question therefore, should be what is there within these behaviours and technologies that will allow the enterprise to achieve more with less and deliver more than it is already? What do these behaviour and technologies mean for improving existing practice in order to raise productivity, increase innovation and thus, create of new wealth? Here the real potential of these developments can be realised.

Enterprise2.0 – realising the potential of  participation

There are many dimensions of this question that I will not address here but in subsequent posts. For now I want to briefly examine some elements of the participatory culture of young people that hold out great potential for the Enterprise if adopted correctly. There are at least three areas to examine:

  • First, the critical role of informal networks: the real potential of  participatory culture lies not in participation as such, but the importance of the  informal social relationships and interactions that underpin outcomes. Again, this insight is nothing particularly new and has been a focus of much attention inside the corporation since the Depression of the 1930s. Informal ties between people inside the enterprises working within established processes (often to get around these) is how things actually get done inside the enterprise. Mapping these and visualising them can reveal critical relationships (depending upon what problem you are trying to solve). But what the technologies also allow (which is new) is the ability to scale these connections, accumulate and aggregate the data to inform strategic planning, process reorganisation and above all, recognition;
  • Second, peer-driven knowledge management: related to the above point, the formation of  self-selected social networks create a more conducive context for sharing knowledge, precisely because they fulfill the need for self-expression and recognition. Used correctly (with the right balance between user-generated content, accumulated expertise, risk and reward) this can result in a far more effective collaborative working environment. It also overcomes the structural inertia of formal Knowledge Management systems allowing knowledge to be accessed at the point of need. Moreover, participation is self-motivating and thus knowledge sharing becomes a result rather than the object of the interaction;
  • Third, hybridisation: the loss of a distinction between the offline and online within participatory youth culture suggests that the distinction between ‘inside’ and ‘outside’ the enterprise could be a fruitful area for innovation. This is not to suggest that we let it all hang out and ‘open’ the enterprise. That would be childish. But seeing the flows of information as a seamless one between the inside and the outside of the enterprise has immense potential for the creation of  more efficient business processes. For example, monitoring what customers are saying about your brand using social media is worse than useless if it cannot be acted upon. But to act upon that effectively it might be necessary to direct an information flow to a supplier who, as the producer of a component being criticised, is in a better position to deal with this than any internal customer service employee. Allowing those flows and networks of expertise to seamlessly flow between the inside and the outside will turn complaint into satisfaction and brand equity. The challenge here is to work out how these insights can be best deployed within different corporate and business environments. But their potential value is certainly clear.

In summary, it is clear that the Millennial question and Enterprise2.0 is an important one that requires a lot more study and discussion. What I have tried to do here is provide some insights into this behaviour and critiqued the one-sided and superficial assertions made by people with the best intentions.

My parting shot is to stress this point about countering the tendency to getting carried away with the notion that this is all so new and unprecedented. Yes, there are new developments with important implications. But without a nuanced approach we do ourselves a disservice if we add to the hype and exaggerated sense of disruption and uncertainty. Just remember how email was first banned within the enterprise, then only given to the chosen few before it became indispensable and then a burden around the necks of all employees. The same thing occurred before than with the telephone and then the Blackberry. It is not surprising that when executives are confronted by ‘Social Media’ hype, their instinctive reaction is to do exactly what they did with the telephone, email and mobiles. Why give them that Neanderthal opportunity?

This historical amnesia is only good for social media gurus who want to sell books. Ironically, if we are to realise the potential of these behaviours and technologies, it is the continuities with the past that we need to stress.

Filed under: Authority, Digital Kids, ,

BROADBAND ASIA STREAKING AHEAD

According to an interview with Robin Mersh – Chief Operating Officer, Broadband Forum, on the Total Telecom website reporting from the TotalTelevision Live show from Singapore, there are now 484 million broadband subscribers globally.

Although he gives no definition of what constitutes ‘broadband’ this is impressive.

What’s even more impressive is the fact that in Asia there are now 50 million subscribers connected to fibre networks. And as to be expected, China now boasts the largest number of broadband and IPTV subscribers globally.

Assuming that we in the West still retain a desire in matching such capabilities  (as opposed to the Digital Britain report with its staggeringly unambitious 2-4 megabit broadband connections across the UK) this suggests that for all of us who are interested in the future of innovation enabled by the Internet, Asia must become the focus of research. The sociology of such connected behaviours, for example, will provide new insights for anticipating new needs, problems and possibilities.

Look East young innovators!

Filed under: Innovation, , ,

THE BIG AND SMALL POTATOES OF INNOVATION

Its time for some collective innovation action: let’s build a ‘problems that require innovative solutions’ database which we can wave in the face of the institutionalised innovation-denial of our political and cultural elite.

One of the underlying assumptions of the Big Potatoes Manifesto is that innovation at root, is about problem solving. The critical question is always whether the innovator is asking the right question or not, never mind finding answers. As anyone involved in R&D will tell you, finding the right question is the most difficult undertaking because it involves a lot of hard preparatory work which is never recognised, the questioning of strongly held assumptions, no definitive way of knowing when you’re there and thus a willingness to take risks. The history of innovation, or rather the history of non-innovation, is littered with towering examples of solving the wrong problems.

As we enter into the promised land of the ‘Big Society’ (whatever that might mean, surely not the ‘obese society’?) which is focussing on everything except the real problem of how to seed innovation as a spur to generating new economic growth, there is no shortage of problems facing 21st Century society that demand innovative solutions. Instead we are faced with a culture of institutionalised evasion and low expectations.

So what to do about it? Well, we published Big Potatoes as opening salvo. But I was struck by another simple idea when traveling to Germany this week amidst the information drought spurred on by volcanic ash uncertainty. From the moment I woke up (very early) my experience, from starting my web browser to search for the latest information about flights to actually getting on the plane, was one punctuated by small and large problems that if solved would have made my life so much easier.

It struck me that as a first step, we should be capturing and publishing details of all the problems we encounter in our daily lives to create a ‘problems that require innovative solutions’ database which we could present to government, business and academia to demand some action.

The ‘Information Age’ still in the toilet

Let me explain. My few hours before getting on my flight to Germany threw up a number of problems, big and small. The Big Potato problem was the inability to get the information about airport closures or flight cancellations quickly. It is still staggering to think that despite over ten years of talking about the information age and the ‘always on connected’ culture, it is still not possible for my airline to text me vital information about the status of my flight, especially since volcanic ash disruption was neither unexpected nor new. Despite subscribing to Lufthansa’s SMS service, I received no such updates. Instead I was forced to look at news pages from the BBC that were two hours old and which seriously suggested ‘passengers should contact their airlines for the latest information before leaving home’. Has anyone at the BBC ever tried to phone an airline to get this information? First, where do you find the number? Second, where is there a number you can call that’s not going to cost you next term’s school fees just to hear Vivaldi’s Four Seasons being interrupted by ‘we’re sorry but our customer services representatives are all busy…’. And of course, ‘your call is very important to us (so why use a £100 system instead of letting me speak to a person) and will be used for training purposes’.

SOLVE THIS DAMN PROBLEM PEOPLE!

The small potato problem I encountered was in the toilets. How come no one has worked out how to situate the wash bowels next to the dryers so that you do not have to carry your hand luggage with wet hands to the dryers after washing them? This could be solved either through design or by inventing a system that allows you to wash and dry your hands at the same spot – a wash hand basin and a dryer in one – hardly a revolution but certainly a better solution. And yes, I know these do exist, but the ones I’ve tried to use did not work.

I accept this is small potatoes. But it speaks loudly to the point that there remain real day-to-day problems that require innovation and creative solutions. If we all began to systematically record these problems – the Small and Big Potatoes – we would be able to demonstrate the opportunities for innovation that our political and cultural elite seem to have given up on. No problem should be ruled out: from toilet wash hand basins to the energy crisis, from digital data to health care for ageing societies, we should catalogue small and large.

As a start, post observations as comments to this article. Depending upon the response we can migrate this to a dedicated space on the Big Potatoes website, or create a website just for this endeavour. It would be the start of a crowdsourced  innovation/problem solving data base which could spur some action. At the very least it could act as a rich source of ideas for entrepreneurs.

We have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Filed under: Innovation, ,

INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON ENTERPRISE2.0 IN MILAN

On 9-10 June, my company Open-Knowledge is organising its third International Forum on Enterprise 2.0 – outside of the US – the largest Enterprise 2.0 event in the world.

The event attracts speakers and delegates from all over the world but particularly from Europe. This year’s themes resonate with the tough choices businesses are having to make about their futures:

  • How to leverage their social capital in ways that their competitors cannot;
  • How to ‘socialise’ internal processes that can unify the dynamism of their employees with that of their customers through social media technologies;
  • How to innovate innovation and rapidly bring new compelling products or services to the market.

This year’s event combines workshops, plenary sessions and parallel tracks as well as a barcamp. The full agenda can be seen here. The event is organised around the following themes:

  • Inside the organization: Intranet 2.0, Community Management, Human Resources 2.0, Social Learning, Organizational Network Analysis, IT Governance
  • Outside the organizations: Social CRM, Sales Communities, Social Media Marketing, Social Media Monitoring
  • Innovation: Idea and Innovation Management, Crowdsourcing and Idea generation, Prediction markets

I will be speaking on how to leverage social capital for innovation – a copy of my speech and presentation will be posted here after the event.

SMELL THE COFFEE

If you are interested in discovering what Enterprise 2.0 means for the future of public and private companies, then you should come to Milan on 9/10 June and join the conversation. You can also enjoy some great food, excellent coffee and fine weather!

There is a 15 % discount on all Premium events if you register through this blog connection. Please click here and use the code ‘oknorman’ when filling in the registration form.

I hope to see you in Milano!

Filed under: Innovation,

BIG POTATOES: THE LONDON MANIFESTO FOR INNOVATION IS NOW LIVE!

As readers of this blog will know I have been plugging BIG POTATOES: the London Manifesto for Innovation for some time. I’m pleased to announce that the website is now live. Check it out here.

I look forward to your comments, criticisms and hopefully, your support.

JOIN THE DEBATE AND HELP GROW BIG POTATOES!

Filed under: Innovation, ,

ERIC SCHMIDT’S ‘INNOVATION DEFICIT’ RECIPE DEFICIENT

Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google published an article on Tuesday in the Washington Post  titled ‘Erasing our innovation deficit’ in which he argues for a fundamental rethink of America’s innovation model.

Schmidt’s concerns appear to be motivated by his observation that much of the cutting-edge research and development in key areas such as renewable energy now takes place outside the United States. His fear is that there is now a ‘real chance that the “green Silicon Valley” will take root in Germany or China’. This he argues America cannot afford to let happen.

There is truth in this observation as I have noted in previous posts about the nature of the R&D taking place in Asia. And there is much to agree with in his call for ‘encouraging risk-taking’ and tolerating ‘failure — provided we learn from it’. One of the key principles in the Big Potatoes Manifesto argues for precisely this approach. But there are some assumptions in his piece that are debatable if not plain wrong. The most glaring contradiction is his appeal for openness and data sharing and bottoms up innovation…provided this happens in American not Asia.

Coffee shops vs big corporate labs

In arguing for an overhaul of America’s innovation model, Schmidt makes the same point as many others about open innovation and the impact of the Internet. He argues as follows:

‘We can no longer rely on the top-down approach of the 20th century, when big investments in the military and NASA spun off to the wider economy. Now that the Internet has put abundant information and powerful tools in everyone’s hands, innovation is often driven from the bottom up. The ideas that power our next generation of growth are just as likely to originate in a coffee shop as in the laboratory of a big corporation’.

It is certainly true that the Internet and the greater availability of data has enormous potential for the kind of collaboration that may result in breakthrough innovations in the future. But what he fails to point account or even credit, is that today’s bottom up philosophy exists because of the very top down investment Schmidt now considers outdated. Indeed, Google would not exist if it were not for this past investment and approach. That is not to say that history must necessarily repeat itself. But to dismiss this or to counterpose this to coffee shop collaboration is to throw the baby out with the bath water.

What makes bottom up innovation more a possibility today is the legacy of yesterday’s top down R&D models which are now dismissed as old-fashioned. This is historic myopia because we are now living off that legacy with no clear replacements available.

Yesterday’s top down approach was critical for providing the context within which breakthrough innovations took place – from corporate labs to garage inventors. President Kennedy’s pledge to put a man on the moon, ‘because it is difficult’, created the context within which big ideas, risk taking, solving new problems, discovering new fields of science and knowledge became a legitimate and honourable pursuit – a pursuit, it should be noted, which required expertise, systematic application, long-term resources, experimentation and yes, a culture of failure. This inspired generations of young people to study mathematics, physics, chemistry and computer science.

The problem Schmidt evades is that this is very unlikely to happen in corporate labs today, because they are subject to a more risk-averse and short-term financial instrumentalism that constrains what is possible.

Its the context, Eric

An innovation model requires an innovation context. This is precisely what is missing from today’s debate about innovation. The problem with American innovation is that it now takes place within a cultural context which is driven by short-term market instrumentalism, is risk averse and above all, defined by limits that are no longer challenged. The kitchen table innovator and the researcher in the corporate labs of tomorrow (those that still remain, that is) will be condemned to dabble within this culture of limits. The result in both cases will be a race to the bottom rather than a struggle to the top.

How to take advantage of the collaborative resource we have at our finger tips while raising expectations, ambitions and challenging our risk averse culture of limits seems to be the real challenge which Schmidt only partially focuses on. This will not happen spontaneously. It requires leadership and heretically Big Ideas. Without that a government ‘wikipedia of idea’, as Schmidt demands, will only reinforce the narrow scope of contemporary efforts, expectation and ambition…and keep out the Chinese? Not very open Mr Schmidt.

Filed under: Innovation, , ,

About futures-diagnosis

Categories

Archive

Follow me on Twitter

My del.icio.us tags

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 755 other followers