Futures-Diagnosis

Diagnosing the future of the Internet and innovation and their social impact

REDISCOVERING AMBITION IN INNOVATION

In recent weeks there have been a number of articles mainly in the US media which chart the decline of Silicon Valley and the broader decline in US innovation. See for example, Tyler Cowan’s very useful piece in the New York Times published on Friday 29 January titled ‘Innovation Is Doing Little for Incomes‘ or Tony D’Altorio’s ‘Has Silicon Valley Lost Its Edge?

The themes of these articles will be familiar to any regular readers of this Blog. Tyler Cowan really backs the Big Potatoes Manifesto’s point that we are not living in an era of unprecedented innovation but a relative decline. He argues that this is best seen and understood in the slowdown in economic growth and its impact on incomes:

  • From 1947 to 1973 — a period of just 26 years — inflation-adjusted median income in the United States more than doubled. But in the 31 years from 1973 to 2004, it rose only 22 percent;
  • Over the last decade, it actually declined.

Cowan argues further that most well-off countries have experienced income growth slowdowns since the early 1970s which suggests these societies have reached a ‘technological plateau’:

The numbers suggest that for almost 40 years, we’ve had near-universal dissemination of the major innovations stemming from the Industrial Revolution, many of which combined efficient machines with potent fossil fuels. Today, no huge improvement for the automobile or airplane is in sight, and the major struggle is to limit their pollution, not to vastly improve their capabilities.

Instead of incomes broadly being raised across the board, what little innovation there has been in the past 50 years or so, have benefitted relatively few people. The technological innovations at the turn of the Century, which raised living standards throughout the Century, belong to a bygone age: the broad-based advances of earlier decades, when the modern world was put into place are now elusive. As Cowan he puts it:

  • If pre-1973 growth rates had continued, for example, median family income in the United States would now be more than $90,000, as opposed to its current range of around $50,000.

Short-termism and limits

Tony D’Altorio’s ‘Has Silicon Valley Lost Its Edge?‘ picks up on this theme too. He argues, as have others that Facebook’s $50 billion valuation in private financing in January, while suggesting that it ‘looked like business as usual for the Silicon Valley’ actually masked a decline in US technological competitiveness and ‘a deeper malaise that threatens America’s system of innovation’. He quotes John Seely Brown, who used to head up the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center – one of the Valley’s most renowned corporate research and development laboratories – who argues that U.S. technology investors no longer care about the serious work needed to keep a lead in many advanced industries. He says, “we’ve lost the will for patient investment,” thanks to quick profits from high-flying internet and social networking firms.

In other words, as we have argued in Big Potatoes, short-term speculation has increasingly replaced longer term investment in basic research where outcomes cannot be specified in advance but which have led in the past to the creation of new industries.

The point, however, is not simply a problem of short-termism. Looking to invest in quick-wins like Facebook (which are unlikely to be remembered for their contribution to human progress) is a symptom of a much deeper malaise: the loss of confidence in technology itself and our ability to do the hard work of finding new solutions to the problems we confront. Short-termism expresses a loss of faith in the future and in the human capacity to change the world around us. As  Tyler Cowan put it above

Today, no huge improvement for the automobile or airplane is in sight, and the major struggle is to limit their pollution, not to vastly improve their capabilities

The problem is the limits we now place upon the scope for innovation. The problem is not where the money might or might not be going – to China or  Silicon Valley – but the assumptions that underpin its movement. While incremental innovation can certainly happen within a culture of limits, limiting the ambition behind the innovation impulse reduces the scope for breakthroughs. Indeed, it factors them out of the equation at the outset. It boxes innovation into smaller and smaller fields of endeavour which ultimately will reduce incomes for the mass of humanity even further.

It’s not capital that’s in short supply but ambition.

Filed under: Innovation, , , ,

CHINA TO LEAD WORLD INNOVATION BY 2020…APPARENTLY

According to Reuters News Service, published on the ABC News channel China is now set to become the leader of world innovation by 2020…according to a public opinion poll of 6,000 people in six countries done by drug maker AstraZeneca.

Public perceptions of course are always impressionistic. But the sentiments expressed in the survey are very revealing.

It is still the case today, for example, that the USA remains the world’s most innovative nation followed by Japan. China, which is now third, has reached this place very rapidly and looks set to go further. While there are indications of a significant shift China has some way to go to overtake the USA. For example, the ABC article mentions the study last month from Thomson Reuters which revealed that China was now the second-largest producer of scientific papers, after the United States. But the same study showed that R&D spending by Asian nations as a group in 2008 was $387 billion, compared with $384 billion in the United States and $280 billion in Europe. But this does not equate to being more innovative.

However, the significance of this survey lies in the subjective insight it reveals about perceptions in the West and the East.

R&D spending does not equal innovation – but belief ensures it

As we have discussed in previous posts, the amount spent on R&D is never, in itself, a guarantee of innovation. It is the culture that informs that spending, the context within which that innovation emerges that remains critical. The survey which was taken across Britain, the United States, Sweden, Japan, India and China, found

‘…a strong sense of optimism amongst people living in China and India, in contrast to relative pessimism in the developed Western economies’.

People in the East believe China will become the world’s leading innovator by 2020. But so too do people in the West. The same perception is informed by starkly different moods: optimism and pessimism.

Subjectivity does greatly influence the culture of innovation. Pessimism, will influence an innovation culture that places emphasis upon incremental changes. It will foster a conservative and cautious approach which can only lower expectations about the goals and objectives of innovation and its outcomes. Optimism, on the other hand, underpins an innovation culture that is more at ease with uncertainty and thus encourages a willingness to experiment and to take risks. This raises expectations about what innovation can achieve. It was not pessimism that drove America to put a man on the moon.

As a co-author of Big Potatoes, you can guess where I’d put my money.

Filed under: R&D and Innovation, ,

CORPORATE R&D SPENDING IN DECLINE IN 2009

According to Booz & Company Global Innovation 1000 Study, corporate R&D spending declined during the 2009 downturn. The report also shows how vacuous the concept of innovation has become and its separation from R&D.

The report, the sixth annual study of corporate innovation, notes that total research and development (R&D) spending among the world’s top spenders on innovation dropped in 2009 for the first time in 13 years: the 1,000 companies that spent the most on research and development decreased their total R&D spending by 3.5 per cent to $503 billion in 2009. This followed a relatively strong 2008 during in which R&D spending continued to grow despite the recession.

Probably the most important finding is how the recession has hit corporate earnings:

  • Revenues for the Innovation 1000 plunged 11% from $15.1 trillion in 2008 to $13.4 trillion in 2009 — nearly three times the rate of decline in R&D spending:
  • R&D intensity, or R&D spending as a percentage of revenue, actually increased — from 3.46% in 2008 to 3.75% in 2009.

Surprisingly, in the face of these revenue reductions, the 3.5% reduction in R&D spending by the 1,000 top R&D spenders was less severe than the cuts they made into both sales, general and administrative expenses (a 5.4% reduction), and capital expenditures (a 17.5% drop).

The big question this nevertheless reveals is what these corporations will do with R&D spending once corporate earnings rebound in 2010?

Interesting insights

More than half of all companies Booz & Company tracked cut their R&D spending in 2009 and nearly all the cuts came in just three industries:

  • Auto, computing and electronics, and industrials.
  • The other seven industries examined — health, software and Internet, telecom, chemicals and energy, aerospace and defense, consumer and industrials — all increased spending to some degree.
  • The auto industry alone accounted for fully two-thirds of the $18 billion contraction in R&D spending;
  • The computing and electronics industry reported similar, but less drastic, R&D spending reductions with no change in the industry’s R&D intensity:
  • Despite a decline in R&D spending, computing and electronics retained its top spot as the industry that spent the most on innovation, while auto remained at number three. Healthcare took the number two spot, increasing R&D by 1.5%, much slower than the industry’s revenue growth rate of 6.0%.
  • Japan saw the largest percentage drop in spending by region in which a company was headquartered – 10.8%,  North American spending declined by 2.8%, while Europe’s declined by just 0.2%.

In contrast, companies headquartered in China and India boosted R&D spending by 41.8%, although from a small base, as they account for only 1% of total Global Innovation 1000 corporate R&D spending.

The vacuous concept of ‘Innovation’

To underline how vacuous the concept of innovation  has become, the report reveals some depressingly stereotypical insights. The survey asked innovation leaders to name three companies they consider to be most innovative in the world.

Apple far and away led the Top 10, named by 79 percent of those surveyed, followed by Google with 49 percent. 3M followed next with 20 percent. Only three of the companies on the “ten most innovative” list also appear on this year’s top spenders list: Toyota, Microsoft and Samsung.

While this reiterates the lack of correlation between the magnitude of R&D spending and innovation results, it highlights the recurrent problem we have been highlighting with innovation today in the Big Potatoes Manifesto: namely, that Apple, a company that essentially puts together other people’s innovations while paying attention to user interfaces, is now held up as the model of  ’innovation’. This raises serious questions about what these ‘innovation leaders’ think R&D is really all about.

What the report fails to question is the relationship between risk taking and the willingness to invest in areas of research where there are no foregone conclusions about commercialisability, but where the source for future innovation might emerge. This would give a more accurate picture of the state of contemporary innovation. Sadly, this report is another missed opportunity to make this the focus of the public debate about the future of innovation.

Filed under: Innovation, R&D and Innovation, ,

Future City: Is London missing out on the potential of new technologies?

I will be participating in the Story of London Festival tomorrow evening (Thursday 8 October) at the British Library in a debate about London and the future of innovation.

This is very timely. Just today the EU has declared an ‘Innovation emergency’ recognising that Europe is now falling behind globally in the investment in and development of new research and its commercialisation. EU officials have stated their goal is having 3 per cent of EU gross domestic product invested in research and development by 2020 – a target that matches US president Barack Obama’s plans, although Europe has struggled to hit 2 per cent of GDP over the past decade. Even this seems extremely unambitious.

This highlights that there is now a growing understanding of the innovation crisis facing European, indeed Western States. It is this reality and its underlying causes that I intend to raise in tomorrow night’s debate which is based on the theme ‘London, Innovation and the Future’, focusing on London as a site of innovation and the value of innovation to the future of the city.

Distractions, toys vs problem solving

The publicity material for the debate states that ‘historically London has been the site of great innovations, and digital technologies are raising further our ability to innovate’. It asks some serious questions:

  • ‘Are we getting distracted by shiny new technologies and ignoring real innovation?
  • ‘Does London have the ambition and vision to harness such developments?’

As one of the co-authors of Big Potatoes: the London Manifesto for Innovation, my answers should come as no surprise: definitely ‘yes’ to the first, and definitely ‘NO’ to the second…But for my reasons, you will have to come to the debate.

This should be an interesting evening given the topic and the speakers who are participating.

Fellow speakers:
Dr Hermann Hauser, co-founder, Amadeus Capital Partners
Iain Gray, chief executive, Technology Strategy Board
Adam Hart-Davis, writer and broadcaster
Chair: David Rowan, editor, Wired UK

I look forward to seeing some of you at the British Library at 6.30pm.

Filed under: Innovation, , ,

OECD’S INNOVATION STRATEGY – SOME BIG BUT PITTED POTATOES AT LAST!

The publication of the OECD’s Innovation Strategy this week provides strong support for the Big Potatoes position that future innovation remains fundamental to resolving the global economic crisis we are facing.

The OECD report is to be welcomed despite the confusion at its heart about the role of R&D. As can be seen from the Wordle text cloud below, the report places great emphasis upon research, science and knowledge, longer-term thinking and perspectives and most welcome of all, an insistence on the enduring importance of R&D.

Before dealing with the key confusion at the heart of the report about the role of R&D, it is worth noting a few key findings which make this a refreshing and welcome contribution to the public debate about innovation:

  • Innovation, productivity and Economic growth: The report’s key finding is that future growth must ‘increasingly come from innovation-induced productivity growth. As it states: ‘Innovation – the introduction of a new or significantly improved product, process or method – holds the key to boosting productivity’;
  • Longer-term thinking vs short-term pragmatism: The report argues for increased investment in future long-term sources of growth, such as education, infrastructure and research. It argues this must remain a continuing priority  as countries seek to move beyond the current crisis. It correctly points out that while cutting back public investment in support of innovation may provide short-term fiscal relief, it will hurt long-term growth;  ’a continuing strong baseline of investment is essential if productivity benefits are to accrue and a return to growth is to be achieved’. Moreover, it highlights that while improving the efficiency of government spending will always be necessary, innovation in the delivery of public services is long overdue;
  • Science remains an essential ingredient of innovation: the investment in research and the development of knowledge is suggested as the cornerstone of future innovation;

Science continues to be an essential ingredient of innovation. Modern innovations, from the transistor to the Internet search engine, have drawn on scientific knowledge. Most basic research is still is done in the public sector, predominantly by higher education establishments or by public research institutions. Data on science-patent linkages show that the role of science in innovation continues to increase, and that sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors rely heavily on scientific research, which is becoming increasingly multi-disciplinary in nature.

The role of R&D and open innovation – some confusion

While the report highlights the critical role of R&D it nevertheless makes too many concessions to today’s prejudice that  innovation is really about everything apart from R&D. In the spirit of the cult of innovation without R&D they argue:

‘innovation today encompasses much more than research and development (R&D), although R&D remains vitally important. Innovation rarely occurs in isolation, it is a highly interactive process of collaboration across a growing and diverse network of stakeholders, institutions and users. Moreover, the emergence of new and important players has added to the complexity of the multifaceted international landscape of innovation’.

When was innovation not a ‘highly interactive process of collaboration’, for example? Invention and pure research could be based upon isolated and discrete interactions, but innovation has always been a collaborative endeavour. As evidence for this assertion the report argues that while R&D remains vitally important, ‘many highly innovative firms do not engage in R&D at all. (See their Figure 3 reproduced below – apologies about the size – the blue columns represent firms that innovate without spending on R&D, the grey columns those with in-house R&D).They argue that increasingly, firms in services and manufacturing create value through a wide range of complementary technological and non-technological changes and innovations. The final assertion is that as the complexity and costs of engaging in innovation have increased, so has collaboration. Partnerships and crowdsourcing are on the increase to the extent apparently ‘that firms that collaborate on innovation spend more on innovation than those that do not, an indication that collaboration is more a means to extend the scope of a project or complement firms’ competencies than simply a means to save on costs. In most countries, collaboration with foreign partners is at least as important as domestic co-operation, a sign of the formation of global networks of innovation.

This growth of global innovation networks is certainly a phenomenon that is worth deeper analysis. But the main problem with this argument and the evidence provided is that while many innovative firms may not be spending on R&D they are nevertheless living off the gains of past R&D efforts. The report does not provide a breakdown of what sector these non-R&D spending innovative firms are in. But to some extent that does not really matter. As they say themselves recognise (see the set out quote above) the transistor, the Internet were the result of scientific endeavours, in other words, research efforts, that today underpin so much of the global information economy. Everything innovative forms do today rests upon the legacy of past R&D successes and failures.

By stressing the importance of non-R&D led innovation, the OECD report falls into today’s cult of innovation everywhere but in R&D we criticise so centrally in the Big Potatoes Manifesto. While we certainly need to deepen our understanding of what is happening at the level of innovation networks, crowdsourced collaboration and ‘open-innovation’, it remains vital to insist upon returning R&D to poll position if innovation is to do what the report so correctly highlights – get us out of the current economic mess we’re in.

Filed under: Economics of Innovation, Science and Innovation, ,

BIG POTATOES: INNOVATION, R&D AND THE GENERAL ELECTION

On Tuesday 27 April, the R&D Society and the authors of BIG POTATOES: The London Manifesto for Innovation in association with EPOCH have together organised an eve-of-election event  on innovation and the future of the UK.

Despite its importance to our economic future, innovation has largely been overlooked since the credit crunch and is being largely ignored in the UK General Election.

This debate aims to ask:

  • What are the real barriers to making transformational innovations today?
  • How is innovation best managed?
  • What should business, government and the third sector do to change things?

I will be speaking on behalf of Big Potatoes, but the other speakers are:

  • Eliot Forster, CEO Solace Pharmaceuticals
  • Munira Mirza, advisor for arts and culture to London Mayor
  • Stefan Stern, management columnist, Financial Times
  • James Wilsdon, Director of the Science Policy Centre, The Royal Society

The event is scheduled to start at 18:45 at The Royal Society, 6-9 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5AG. Please arrive at 18.30 for registration etc. Tickets can be obtained at the door but it is advisable to book in advance through EventBrite. Tickets are as follows:

Corporate £30 / individual £15, (£15 R&D Society members)

Filed under: R&D and Innovation, ,

BIG POTATOES: THE LONDON MANIFESTO FOR INNOVATION IS NOW LIVE!

As readers of this blog will know I have been plugging BIG POTATOES: the London Manifesto for Innovation for some time. I’m pleased to announce that the website is now live. Check it out here.

I look forward to your comments, criticisms and hopefully, your support.

JOIN THE DEBATE AND HELP GROW BIG POTATOES!

Filed under: Innovation, ,

REGULATION & INNOVATION: WHEN THE STATE BECOMES A BARRIER

One of my co-authors of BIG POTATOES: the London Manifesto for Innovation, James Woudhuysen and I have just published an article on government and regulation on spiked-online, titled, ‘How the state is a roadblock to progress’ in which we argue that red tape-obsessed, visionless governments are holding back the kind of big and risky innovation society needs today.

This will be a constant theme we hope to expand upon when we launch BIG POTATOES this month. (Watch this space for an imminent announcement!). We concluded the article as follows:

“Innovation however, means making a persistent stab into the unknown. And the unknown cannot be regulated. We cannot routinise what we don’t yet know. Attempts to render technological change more predictable and ‘responsible’ can only mean closing down experiment and exploration.

“Innovation is a risky business. Technological innovation creates new problems, and can even lead to deaths. On the whole, however, mankind solves those new problems. However, the contemporary impeding of innovation through regulation reflects not just the momentary lapse of a government functionary, but a dyed-in-the-wool cultural malaise, a deep antipathy to taking chances, and a fundamental nervousness about spending money on risky enterprises.

“The over-regulation of innovation has acquired its own dynamic. What is now needed isn’t regulatory reform, but a sizeable – if discriminating – bonfire of controls that is more than merely rhetorical. To move Britain and the world forward, the deregulation of innovation is now an urgent imperative.

Filed under: Risk and Innovation, , ,

INNOVATION CAPACITY IS STILL IN A STATE

I was really struck by this article on Amazon’s Kindle from the New Republic website based upon an article on the HBR Blog ‘Is the US Killing its Innovation Machine?’ by Professor Willy C Shih, titled ‘The U.S. Can’t Manufacture the Kindle and That’s a Problem’. It highlights the opposite of what every globalisation guru asserts: namely, that far from innovation being an open playing field, innovation remains intimately tied to the nation-state and the national ecosystems they nurture.

The author details why Amazon’s Kindle cannot be manufactured in the US, despite the fact that it was designed in California and its key innovation  — its electronic ink (the tiny microcapsule beads used in its electrophoretic display) — was invented and is being made in the USA by E Ink, a company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He reveals that Asian manufacturers are capturing the vast majority of the value added by manufacturing the e-reader itself. Even more worrisome for him, he sees this growing capacity in Asia almost certainly resulting in the loss of control by the US of e-paper display technologies and the future innovations that spring from them.

VALUE ADDED MANUFACTURING

The majority of the value added in manufacturing the Kindle is being captured in Asia. Why? Simply because the key components that make up the Kindle cannot be made in the USA:

  • E Ink had to have the glass made in Asia because the companies there are the only ones that can deposit patterned silicon on sheets of glass. That capability left U.S. shores when American companies failed to keep up in the LCD flat-panel-display industry;
  • The next most valuable component, the wireless broadband data module, supplied by San Diego-based Novatel Wireless, is made in Korea. Its value of $39.50, includes a $13 Qualcomm CDMA chip, also manufactured in Asia. Though chips like this are still designed in the U.S., the vast majority of them are manufactured in chip foundries in Taiwan, Singapore, and China, and then packaged somewhere in the region;
  • The Kindle contains a microprocessor chip supplied by Austin, Texas-based Freescale Semiconductor but it is not clear where there is manufactured (according to the author). But all the other electronic components, including the lithium-polymer battery, were designed and are being manufactured in Asia, where the capabilities reside thanks to its strong consumer-electronics industry.

Professor Shih concludes that of the total cost of $185, perhaps $40 to $50 is captured in the US and asks if this is a problem. He notes that Amazon is well positioned to capture most of the value of the Kindle and a healthy portion of the profits generated by sales of e-books to Kindle owners including Kindle’s wireless data service, which uses Sprint’s US-based data network.

So why the concern?

Besides the impact this has on the US’s trade deficit the more substantive cause for concern is that ‘when innovations can’t be manufactured in the U.S., the locus of innovation in that area frequently shifts to the countries that can manufacture them’. Even though the electrophoretic beads were the central innovation in the Kindle, E Ink could not control the low temperature polysilicon and the fabrication of the display. It thus could not perform the system integration required for it to capture the majority of the value add. That capability has shifted to Asia. And this is the key development.

VALUE-ADD AND INNOVATION CAPACITY

The issue highlighted by the Kindle example, is the fact that the shift of value-add in manufacturing to Asia has created a newfound innovation capacity there that those without this exploitation platform, will find increasingly difficult to match. Professor Shih remarks that by ‘not manufacturing the electrophoretic display, the U.S. will miss out on the future industries that spring from it — things like large flexible displays, future generations of electronic signage, and plastic electronics’. And these in all likelihood will spawn other innovations and new industries.

“The lesson: Sometimes when you let your capabilities get away, you give up not only one industry but all its progeny.”

Professor Shih notes how years ago the U.S. lost the vast majority of its infrastructure, or “commons,” in precision optics to Japan. Again it was not simply value add that was problematic: ‘The Japanese used those capabilities to grab the lead in producing lithography tools for semiconductor manufacturing, which, in turn, drove most American semiconductor manufacturers out of the DRAM business. The Japanese also employed those capabilities to expand into lithographic tools needed to manufacture flat panel displays’.This same story has played out in high-tech industry after high-tech industry.

This example reveals that innovation capacity is not something that can be turned on and off at will but develops over time across an ecosystem that fosters exploration, engagement and exploitation. This is a symbiotic relationship which encompasses a set of critical relationships from the education system to government industrial policies; from the regulatory environment to longer term investment commitments to R&D etc.

Above all else, the Kindle example is only one of the latest that demonstrate that innovation capacity is rooted in the nation-state. We now begin to see the consequences of the financialisation of Western economies and where the short-term, risk-averse instrumentalism underpinning Western business culture is leading:  the shift in manufacturing from West to East, what some define as globalisation, has given rise to a similar shift in the capacity to innovate. Innovation capacity remains firmly rooted in the nation-state and until such time that a sense of ambitions is revisited upon Western economies, this is a trend that will only intensify in the 21st Century.

This is what BIG POTATOES: The London Manifesto for Innovation is attempting to address.

Filed under: Economics of Innovation, , ,

Big Potatoes Principle 1: THINK BIG

As a preview to the launch of Big Potatoes: The London Manifesto for Innovation, here is the first principle concerning reclaiming ambition in innovation.

The full entry of China and India into the world economy doesn’t just mean billions more consumers aspiring to Western lifestyles. It also means that the world can benefit from billions of innovating brains. It’s a moment to broaden horizons, expect much more, and expand every kind of ambition.

First, though, Britain and the West need to recover a sense of what innovation is and just how much it can do.

Defining innovation and its potential

Innovation cannot be reduced to technology: while it embraces improvements both in process and in product or service, these often accompany changes in organisation. [1] However today technological innovation is weak in private services, weaker still in public services, and takes second place to changes in business model – different ways of taking money from customers. In particular, business expenditure on research and development (R&D), taken as a fraction of GDP, has been stagnant in America and Europe for 15 years or more. [2] In that faltering context, where the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development talks up what it calls ‘the central importance of non technological innovation’, [3] it’s essential to uphold the powerful improvements, above all in productivity, that new techniques can bring.

When Adam Smith published The wealth of nations in 1776, he didn’t know that the title to his famous passage, ‘The division of labour in pin manufacturing (and the great increase in the quantity of work that results)’ would be on the back of every £20 note. Nor could he have realised how much bigger, with China and India, is the stock of ingenuity that mankind can now mobilise. [4] Yet today all corners of the Earth can rightly hope to move on toward a global division of labour far in advance of what we can imagine. By itself, that won’t lead to more time for leisure or more equality. But with more than one billion people going hungry for the first time in 40 years, [5] the need for productivity step-changes just in agriculture, irrigation and food distribution has seldom been greater.

In innovation there can be no skipping over the need for professional expertise. Still, with the opening up of Asia, more people can now specialise more deeply in particular lines of work – something that will also allow multidisciplinary initiatives in innovation to be more successful. The Internet and machine translation make international collaboration easier. So, after all today’s ignorance about the whereabouts of toxic assets, the world now has a chance finally to move toward the much vaunted, prematurely announced ‘knowledge economy’.

Scale is beautiful

Of course, Britain will not make digital cameras any time soon. Conversely, China will not forever build coal-fired power stations unequipped with carbon capture and storage. But between the nations of the world there is now an opening to share profound insights, agree on vaulting objectives, and take wealth to a qualitatively higher level: to provide more growth, and a better kind of growth.

The first principle of a new, innovatory global division of labour for the 21st century is that scale is beautiful, not smallness. In mobile telephony and electronics, miniaturisation has its place; but to lower the cost of handsets enough for world’s poor to be able to afford them, still larger, more automated production lines are needed. To make the most of sources of renewable energy, which are very diffuse, demands scale undertakings, not David Cameron’s kind of roof-mounted home windmill. Even without attacking the world’s deteriorated and substandard housing, UN estimates suggest, the world must build no fewer than 4000 houses an hour – if its increasing population is to be housed and its slums replaced. [6] More than a third of a century after Ernst Schumacher’s Small is beautiful (1973), it’s time to wave goodbye to humility, parochialism, and the dogma of ‘act local’.

Innovation must set its sights high, and can never do things by halves.

Innovation is, at its best, Big Potatoes.


[1] In the classic account of the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, ‘long-term improvements in output and cheapness’ came from new technologies and methods of production or transport, but also from new consumer goods, new markets, new sources of supply and new forms of organisation. See Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (1942), Unwin Paperbacks, 1987.

[2] See Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI): 2009-1, 13 July 2009, on http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/9/44/41850733.pdf

[3] OECD, Policy Responses to the Economic Crisis:  Investing in Innovation for Long-Term Growth, June 2009, p16, on http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/59/45/42983414.pdf

[4] On top of the populous East, a mere billion people in the West now have, in their leisure time and their widespread access to the Web, an opportunity to volunteer to collaborate on innovation for between two and six billion hours a day. See Yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom, Yale University Press, 2006, p55.

[5] United Nations, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2009, October 2009, on ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/012/i0876e/i0876e.pdf

[6] Figure derived from United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Financing Urban Shelter – Global Report on Human Settlements 2005, 2005, Tables 1.2 and 1.3, p5, on www.unhabitat.org/pmss/getElectronicVersion.asp?nr=1818&alt=1

Filed under: Innovation, ,

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