Futures-Diagnosis

Diagnosing the future of the Internet and innovation and their social impact

A MISSION WITHOUT A VISION

If you were looking for an example of the loss of vision and a sense of mission in the West, then look no further than NASA’s new spectacular Ares I-X rocket, the world’s tallest at 327 feet high scheduled to blast off today, weather permitting.

This is the rocket that NASA has said will replace the aging ‘commuter bus’ known as the space shuttle. But, as The Washington Post article ‘Where will NASA’s next giant step take us?‘ put it, the debut of Ares I may have been ‘the biggest debut since King Kong’, but it ‘may turn out to be a rocket to nowhere’. Why? Because a blue-ribbon committee has said the Ares I is part of a NASA program that doesn’t make sense given current and future budgets. As a result, the Obama administration is close to killing the Ares I programme.

For the Time’s they are a changing

Just contrast this the Kennedy era where putting a man on the moon was undertaken because it was difficult and when it was recognised that the pursuit of conquering space, while risky, was worthwhile for the new knowledge discovered and problems solved along the way. Yes, this was in the context of the Cold War and the military’s pragmatism certainly started the West’s journey towards technological pragmatism and instrumentalism.

But that sense of mission, leadership and vision, in the face of enormous uncertainty and skepticism, stands in stark contrast to today’s mission without any vision or purpose. Then and now space exploration cost billions. But then there was a belief in science, innovation and a spirit of adventure. Today there is only concern about costs with little vision of what unknown benefits would emerge in the course of a new age of exploration.

It seems that it is not just the space shuttle that will be put out to pasture by the end of 2010, but America’s ambition and belief in progress. If Ares I launches today it is most likely to be an epitaph to a bygone era, rather than gleaming start of a new one.

Filed under: Innovation,

WATER ON THE MOON – A TONIC FOR INDIAN ASPIRATIONS AND THE FUTURE OF INNOVATION

Luna3 The discovery of significant quantities of water on the surface of the Moon by India’s first unmanned lunar mission Chandrayaan-1 is certainly something to celebrate. This is remarkable for two reasons: first because it has rekindled the dream of establishing a manned Moon base and further exploration deeper into space, particularly to Mars, and second, because it was the result not of a NASA lunar mission, but an Indian one.

Scientists have been baffled for four decades by the fact that rock samples brought back from the moon by the Apollo lunar missions showed evidence of the existence of water on the Moon. They were not sure if this was because there was water on the Moon or that this was the result of contamination from the Earth’s atmosphere. Now there is no question: water ice exists on the Moon – the ‘holy grail for lunar scientists for a very long time’, as  Jim Green, director of the Planetary Science Division at NASA Headquarters in Washington put it. In a statement put out by NASA, he went on to explain how this extraordinary discovery came about:

“This surprising finding has come about through the ingenuity, perseverance and international cooperation between NASA and the India Space Research Organization.”

This cooperation was significant: NASA’s Moon Mineralogy Mapper, or M3, instrument reported the observations. It was carried into space on Oct. 22, 2008, aboard the Indian Space Research Organization’s Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft. Data from the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer, or VIMS, on NASA’s Cassini spacecraft, and the High-Resolution Infrared Imaging Spectrometer on NASA’s Epoxi spacecraft contributed to confirmation of the finding. The spacecraft imaging spectrometers made it possible to map lunar water more effectively than ever before.

So while NASA still played a significant role in this discovery, the fact that it was an Indian spacecraft is equally significant. India’s lunar programme is a result of the space race emerging between it and China. But whatever the domestic motivations underlying this competition, it highlights how significantly the space exploration field has shifted from West to East. While President Obama contemplates cutting back spending on the US space effort, India and China are surging ahead. We are thus in an era of transition: while a lot of the specialised technological innovation remains the preserve of NASA (given its past investment, innovation and experience), the drive towards pushing the boundaries of exploration are now increasingly coming from the East.

LOOK EAST

This reflects the global shift in economic power from West to East which the current recession has so sharply brought into focus. But more pertinent for the future of innovation, it reveals that this is now accompanied by a significant shift in Eastern aspirations, vision, and a willingness to take risks and push the boundaries of the known further. It suggests that in the same way that the US Space Programme had the unexpected outcome of solving thousands of problems for humanity in the 20th century (see NASA’s spin-off site here), the future of unexpected innovations and problem solving will increasingly come from the East this Century. But far from this representing a problem or being seen as a threat, this should be welcomed, and regarded, as Rob Killick succinctly argues, as an inspiration to us all.

Filed under: Risk and Innovation, Science and Innovation, , ,

TEDxLeeds: innovating out of the recession

Last week I spoke at the TEDxLeeds event on the recession and innovation, organised by Imran Ali and Herb Kim.

It was a well attended event with a very well-informed and engaged audience and judging by the twitter chatter, (#TEDxLeeds) the event seemed to go down extremely well. (Congrats to Imran and Herb and all involved! See the Ian Forrester’s blog post on cubicgarden.com for another view of the event). What was refreshing was the enthusiasm in the audience for challenging the existing culture of limits and low expectations. The points about the need for more risk-taking and greater experimentation, and opposition to the contemporary business culture of short-term pragmatism versus longer-term investment in research, appeared to resonate with a large section of the audience.This highlights that this is the time to develop bold new arguments for why we need

  • more long-term investment in research (as opposed to the short-term funding of development);
  • more experimentation and less emphasis upon predictable outcomes driven by narrow ROI considerations; and
  • more failure to build success.

Watch this space!

Below are some of the slides I used during my presentation. The key points should be obvious. But in case the Kennedy and Moon slides confuse, my point was simply that the US Space Program (despite being rooted in the politics of the Cold War) provided a bold vision and impetus to the generation of ground-breaking new research and innovation. The research created new industries while NASA provided impetus for the formation of thousands of new companies and product innovation. It is this kind of boldness that is so noticeably absent in our society today.

(This presentation has been selected amongst the ‘Top Presentations of the Day’ on the SlideShare homepage).

Filed under: R&D and Innovation, Risk and Innovation, , ,

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